I believe global economies have fundamentally changed post GFC, so previous indicators may no longer be relevant. Interest rates have already gone below historic levels so it's not clear how economies will be turned-around. One of the few suggestions I've seen is https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/the-world-needs-shoc...
This is one of the strongest arguments for a higher inflation target. Wealth concentration and an older population have driven interest rates down to the point where the natural nominal interest rate in goods time is near 0, and almost certainly sub zero for any type of recession.
A higher inflation target(3-4%) gives centrals banks the much needed wiggle room to correct a recession. Unfortunately once you're in a recession it's too late to adjust the inflation rate.
A higher inflation target(3-4%) gives centrals banks the much needed wiggle room to correct a recession. Unfortunately once you're in a recession it's too late to adjust the inflation rate.