[djsumdog]

I really hope Hong Kong gains independence from China. They do not want to be part of that regime. Hong Kong currently participates in some United Nations committees, but is not recognized as a country.

Have there been any political leaders in Hong Kong who have publicly opposed returning to China or who have requested recognition by other UN member States?

[khc]

I was born in Hong Kong but don't live there anymore, although I still visit regularly.

That's a very simplistic view. Many people who oppose the Chinese government do not support complete independence. If there's a referendum on this I expect it to fail on a large margin.

[lordnacho]

This sounds like a complete no-go. Would the rest of the world accept HK as an independent state? Look how they're accepting Taiwan. Now add that China has actual agreements on the status of HK and Macau.

[sandworm101]

>> During talks with Thatcher, China planned to invade and seize Hong Kong if the negotiations set off unrest in the colony. Thatcher later said that Deng told her bluntly that China could easily take Hong Kong by force, stating that "I could walk in and take the whole lot this afternoon", to which she replied that "there is nothing I could do to stop you, but the eyes of the world would now know what China is like".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Handover_of_Hong_Kong

The eyes of the world indeed do "know what China is like". They do not care. Should HK move towards independence, tanks will roll south and the world will do nothing.

[inlined]

It amazes me when suddenly something matters or it doesn’t. There were outcries over Crimea until there suddenly weren’t. There were no outcries over Syria until there suddenly were.

[filoleg]

I feel like the situation at hand is very different. Crimea, unlike Hong Kong, isn't an alpha+ city that is one of the most important financial hubs in the world. While capturing Crimea by RF was extremely reprehensible, there was not much at stake there for any side not directly involved in the conflict. All there was in Crimea situation is just a geopolitical projection of power. With Hong Kong, the stakes are way higher, and I don't think that straight up capture of Hong Kong (Crimea-style) will go over nearly as well.

P.S. Also, not that it makes the situation any less reprehensible, keep in mind that heavy majority of Crimea population at the time of capture was ethnically Russian and was supportive of RF actions. Hong Kong residents, on the other hand, seem to be way less supportive of PRC.

[jedberg]

The unfortunate truth is that Hong Kong isn't nearly as important to global banking as it once was. China has a done a really great job handicapping them, for this very reason. So that it would be easier to absorb them.

[Mikeb85]

They didn't handicap them. HK's status was entirely based on the fact that it was the entry to do business with China. Shanghai and China becoming more open (for example, foreign investors being able to invest in Chinese securities) made HK less important, and the Umbrella Revolution made HK less relevant (bankers don't like risk).

Edit - And this most recent round of demonstrations is the nail in the coffin. No business would ever do business in HK now with the political uncertainty, easier to simply set up shop in Shanghai or form a JV.

[pishpash]

China didn't handicap shit. Hong Kong's rise in the first place was entirely due to China's self-inflicted communism and external sanctions in the first decades after the Revolution. (Shanghai was the Paris of the East before that.) Ever since that stopped, Hong Kong was no longer as important by default. Hong Kong's special status was always predicated on somehow China failing, including now (rule of law, etc.).

This is why the underlying sentiment of Hong Kong independence is especially offensive to Chinese sensibilities.

[filoleg]

That's the real leverage. Hong Kong's true potential is still there to be uncovered, and people remember how flourishing it was back then. Imagine how it could all blow up to even higher highs if the PRC rule was completely gone from Hong Kong. I feel like if that gate opens in the near future (i know, wishful thinking), HK will have its new golden age, as companies and individuals will not need to worry about PRC influence on HK anymore.

[dvfjsdhgfv]

> While capturing Crimea by RF was extremely reprehensible, there was not much at stake there for any side not directly involved in the conflict.

There was something else still: the population of Crimea was mostly Russian. Like, really Russian. Using only Russian language, calling hryvnas rubles, and in general feeling Russian. Many of these people actually liked the idea of Crimea being a part of Russia (at least before the invasion - things changed a bit since then). In HK the situation is completely different: people know what kind of country China is, and will fight for whatever rights they still have.

[vasili111]

>There was something else still: the population of Crimea was mostly Russian. Like, really Russian. Using only Russian language, calling hryvnas rubles, and in general feeling Russian. Many of these people actually liked the idea of Crimea being a part of Russia (at least before the invasion - things changed a bit since then)

We do not know what people of Crimea wanted. Nobody during military occupation of Crimea asked their opinion.

[filoleg]

I had briefly mentioned this in the "P.S." section of my original comment, but I appreciate you adding more concrete and specific examples.

[everybodyknows]

The Tatar minority in Crimea, on the other hand, did not like the idea of being Russian subjects much at all.

https://newrepublic.com/article/116814/crimean-tatars-primer...

[IAmEveryone]

Economic sanctions against Russia have not changed, nor have other consequences of their action in Crimea, such as their exclusion from G7 (formerly G8, formerly G7+1).

Sure, the topic has disappeared from the news. But that does not mean everything is back to normal. It just indicates the situation is frozen.

More generally, territorial expansion by force has been extremely rare in recent history, compared to previous times. That would indicate that the practice generally being frowned upon, and the available actions in response, are somewhat effective.

As to Syria, I remember hearing about it on the first day of protests. That's not to say it went well in any meaning of the word–there really aren't any good options once a government has decided to brutalise its own people. But it did get attention.

[mooneater]

Like the whole idea of a social tipping point? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tipping_point_(sociology)

[klodolph]

Taiwan is poster child for the difference between "de facto" and "de jure". I don't think you could sum up the situation with Taiwan quite so simply.

[T-A]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Youngspiration

[vkou]

Right, and Scotland wants to be independent from the UK, Catalonia from Spain, the Left Coast from the rest of the United States, and so on and so on.

Every country has secessionist movements, and no country wants to encourage that sort of thing abroad, lest it bite it in the ass domestically.

[xiii1408]

In each of those cases there's absolutely a process (albeit a long and arduous process) for secession. It's a process truly democratic countries need to have.

Don't forget that Scotland very nearly did leave the UK, with the government's consent, in 2014 (but the referendum didn't pass).

The Catalonia case is a bit murkier, since the Catalan government did not actually reach an agreement with the Spanish government before they went ahead with the referendum. Also because of irregularities seen by international observers during the referendum, the Catalonia referendum result was generally not recognized.

[mrguyorama]

I don't think the USA has a legal process for secession.

[xiii1408]

Yeah, there's at least a supreme court precedent, set by Texas v. White. It outlawed unilateral succession, but ruled that "revolution or consent of the states" can lead to secession.

[vkou]

The whole point of secession, whether in the US, or Catalonia, or in China[1], is that you have reached a point where you are not able to come to a bilateral compromise on issues that affect you.

If you need bilateral support to exercise your right to self-determination, you don't actually, in practice, have any right to self-determination.

It's like saying that you have the freedom to leave your abusive job, but only as long as your boss lets you quit. That's not freedom, that's slavery.

[1] And yes, I am aware that the case in Scotland was a bit different. Props to the UK for being, as an outside observer, reasonable about the whole affair.

[rolltiide]

Do you think there is any scenario where it can be a bargaining chip that results in its independence?

1997 China is very different than 2019 China with regard to the successes in Shanghai's free trade zone and Guangzhou. The Communist Party is very very far from the teachings of Karl Marx and there is no outcome of a communist utopia that dissolves the central planners, after the means of production are completely egalitarian (a communist state is supposed to be a means to an end, all communist states have failed during this supposedly transitionary stage, China is stable in its central control of power, but doesn't seem to be aiming for a transaction to this fictional untested standard of governance). I don't get the impression that the people buy it, with so many known ways to effect private ownership and capital formation. The effect being that Hong Kong itself isn't that relevant and is more of a blight to undermine the Communist Party's power.

How many resources does the party need to deploy to maintain this information leakage? There would be considerably less international heat on the Communist Party if they let go of their Special Administrative Regions. Other provinces don't derive their adherence to the party based on what happens to the SARs.

[duguxu]

Uniting China has been the core political ideology for all major China dynasties across history, the same for CPC too. Let alone overthrowing the colonialism and getting independence is widely regarded as one of the greatest achievement and gives the legality of its governance.The resource deployed is chicken feed compared to the political crisis losing SARs.

[Robotbeat]

Gaining more power is probably the only common thread among powerful men of all ideologies. "Uniting China" is just another way of saying "extend my control over more people." We shouldn't be surprised that expansionary rhetoric was common among all the major dynasties in what we today call China. This is not, however, a license to do so.