[LyndsySimon]

> I think there is a way to give an estimate (have been doing it myself for a decade), even for dependencies that are not known from the start.

I agree with this. The problem is that estimates vary, and that management teams often don't understand the way they vary. It's one thing if your estimates are precise and are generally accurate within 20%; it's another if your estimate is "it will likely take between six months and three years", and a third of the time the actual required time falls outside even that range.

... and yes, there are many projects for which such a large estimate wouldn't be unreasonable; nor would it be unreasonable for there to be unexpected breakthrough or challenges that significantly impact the timeline.

> Is this something that HN audience is interested in?

I can't speak for the community, but I think the only way you can know the answer to this question is to post it :)