[NeedMoreTea]

You might almost think it was intended to provoke a reaction.

So much so it smells like a false flag op. They were left pretty much alone for about 12 hours, while they broke windows and shutters, since the first reports of broken windows came last night.

To justify the "entirely necessary but unavoidable" reaction coming soon?

[dmix]

The last time the HK police used force there was a massive backlash and the police were angry the government put them in that position to take the brunt of the people's anger.

There are very good non-conspiratorial reasons for the police to take their time, this time around. Plus there's always a subset of protestors who just want to destroy property and take a more aggressive stance (usually the younger ones), regardless of the predictable way it will be spun by opponents and perceived by the more moderate public. Not every act of violence or property destruction can be blamed on police provocateurs.

[NeedMoreTea]

The last time police used force they used tear gas and rubber bullets, without warning, against an entirely peaceful demonstration. Like nkoren said previous demonstrations have been extra careful to consistently keep it peaceful.

This time they wait until the protest has effectively finished trashing the legislature, then go in with tear gas and have a big sign stuck on riot shields of "WARNING: TEAR SMOKE". Both police and protest seem to be taking a dramatically different approach. The peaceful demonstrations that have continued appear separate.

Maybe it is as presented, but it sure makes me suspicious given history.

[dmix]

Sure there’s will always be people that are suspicious which is a good thing. More eyes watching. But doesn’t mean it’s true or more plausible than alternative theories.

The evidence you presented could be spun either way.

[loyukfai]

Besides wanting to destroy property and take a more aggressive stance, there is a prevalent atmosphere of doomsday feeling among the protesting youth.

3 suicides over the last few days can be associated to the current unrest. I wouldn't say it's all the government's fault but it cannot be overlooked either.

They are desperate, while whether the current realities warrant that feeling is debatable, one cannot deny its existence.

[Ill_ban_myself]

God bless the grass that grows through cement. It's green and it's tender and it's easily bent. But after a while it lifts up its head, For the grass is living and the stone is dead

God bless the grass that's gentle and low, Its roots they are deep and its will is to grow. And God bless the truth, the friend of the poor, And the wild grass growing at the poor man's door.

[hker]

This is not a false flag op.

Disclosure: I closely followed the forum where many of the high level discussions take place: lihkg.com (in Cantonese).

The protestors broke into the legislative council, partly in response to the no-response from the government after the large protests on 9 June, 12 June, and 16 June; and partly because of some recent desperate suicides towards no-response from the government (just two cases on 30 June, the day before 1 July).

There were lots of push back for breaking the windows even among the protestors, but eventually they did it just to enter the building. The protestors did not go further to break things: they left money for drinks in the fridge, and labeled artifacts for protection (in Cantonese [1]), so they remained civil except for breaking into the building.

They made a declaration [2] before they left and the police took over.

[1]: https://www.facebook.com/hksidestories/posts/245385840131281...

[2]: https://lihkg.com/thread/1274850/page/1

[gruez]

What is your response to this front page reddit post? https://old.reddit.com/r/HongKong/comments/c7xhih/protestors...

[dirtyid]

Here's a comparison between first second of video, last second (54'') of video, and a composite. Levels are adjusted for clarity because the original comparison is amateurish and more than a little disingenuous.

https://i.imgur.com/TVKFW4S.png

(1) It's pretty obvious there are 3 hands which everyone seems to be conveniently ignoring (you know, like a watch).

(2) Composite frame clearly show hands do not move at all throughout the video suggest the watch is in fact not wound / functional.

[NeedMoreTea]

Interesting, thanks for the extra info.

Bloody disappointing if so, as it seems likely to get just the sort of heavy handed response that they're demonstrating over.

[nkoren]

False flag op was my instant reaction as well. The original protestors were fastidious in their civic-mindedness. These are not them. These protestors are producing made-to-order photos for the Chinese press. When China steps in to "restore order", this will be why.

[koenigdavidmj]

My guess is that this is legitimate, but a strategy like the Republicans used in Northern Ireland. Everyone knows that your little city can't defeat the PLA. What you can do is make yourself ungovernable without making China do things that would tarnish their world reputation. If China quells this protest, but in the process turns Hong Kong into another Xinjiang (including the "reeducation" camps for protesters, and the invasive surveillance on the rest of them, most of whom were alive during British rule), all in violation of the treaty with the UK, then they lose.

[Tijdreiziger]

Since the world already turned a blind eye to Xinjiang, what makes you believe they won't turn a blind eye to Hong Kong?

[slaymaker1907]

Xinjiang isn’t a major finance hub.

[pishpash]

And this is good for Hong Kong how?

People need to get over the reality that One Country Two Systems was meant to be a transition, not a permanent condition. Legally. The most legitimate path that is not tinged with racism or colonialism is to use that time to make sure China becomes a prosperous and free country that everybody wants to live in, as it should be.

[koenigdavidmj]

The point is that China has external pressure not to do that.

[chewz]

And much stronger internal preasure to do this disregarding externalities

The trick with running an autoracy is that it has to be absolute. If one city could disobey and contend the rulers then others will follow.

I would expect few car bombs to follow soon. Terrorism is such a tabu in the West that it would give China carte blanche in HK.

[vkou]

> The original protestors were fastidious in their civic-mindedness.

General question: What is your process for determining whether or not a protest you read about is peaceful, fastidiously civic-minded, or if it is just a bunch of hooligans who want to break windows?

How do you apply that process for determining the nature of protests in your local city?

I ask, because I've never been to, seen, heard of, or read about a protest whose nature was not in dispute by conflicting media. The side that a publication supports is nearly always framed as a group of angels, while the opposing side frames it as a bunch of savages, that were rightfully put in their place by a police response.

[tempguy9999]

> What is your process for determining whether or not a protest you read about is peaceful, fastidiously civic-minded, or if it is just a bunch of hooligans who want to break windows?

Whether they smash windows and vandalise, or not.

[vkou]

1. How do you know that is actually done by the protestors, or some unaffiliated hooligans?

2. How do you know that the news coverage of the event will accurately make a distinction between the two? My experience with this is that the distinction that is made is always conveniently aligned with the political leanings of the news source.

Postulate: Maybe the 'peaceful' versus 'non-peaceful' demonstrations isn't actually a relevant dimension - and is a distraction, used to condemn some protests (that you politically oppose) as illegitimate, and to endorse others, as legitimate?

Every demonstration is going to have a few vandals and hooligans, either planted, embedded, or just standing on the sidelines. I postulate that it doesn't alter the legitimacy of their grievances.

[IAmEveryone]

Or, you know, throwing tea into a harbour.

[tempguy9999]

I'm not up on US history really, but tea was expensive at the time and it was other people's tea being destroyed, so that might well be vandalism. Happy to be corrected though.

[loyukfai]

Maybe. But there was also a mass peaceful demonstration held concurrently (more or less for the same cause), the protesters waited till most of those demonstrators had left, or enough of them who left behind to support them, before action.

One really needs to look at the whole picture to gain some perspective on this recent "sudden" raise of civil disobedience in HK.

[IAmEveryone]

"False flag" gets thrown around far too often, compared to the number of proven cases. And, yes, we would have some amount of history to study for such cases: many files of bygone governments like East Germany, the Nazis, or Apartheid South Africa, as well as de-classified files in the US and other western nations.

The problem with insinuating "false flag" is that it gives everyone license to believe whatever better fits their existing narrative. I remember the possibility being raised, on HN, for the murder in Charlottesville, for example.

In this specific case, it is quite obviously false. Entering & occupying the legislative chamber, with no injuries and rather minor damages, just isn't enough of a pretext for a violent reaction to be considered proportional.

[ggggtez]

Not sure what part you think is a false flag. Hong Kong has a history of protests against China. That would basically have been HK government admitting that Chinese law supersedes HK law.

Could you imagine the UK passing a law that Brussels has jurisdiction over UK citizens? The brexiters would go absolutely nuts. HK has a history of resisting Chinese attempts to impose One China on them.

[Tijdreiziger]

> Could you imagine the UK passing a law that Brussels has jurisdiction over UK citizens?

This is already the case, right? Per Wikipedia:

"A regulation is a legal act of the European Union that becomes immediately enforceable as law in all member states simultaneously."

[IAmEveryone]

Yeah. But, in OP’s defense, Brexiteers have already gone nuts as well.

[realitygrill]

That seems to be a common opinion on the ground, apparently.

[b_tterc_p]

Feels unlikely. Does China really want to sent troops into Hong Kong? Trump is not a civic minded person, but I imagine such an action would not play well towards their current PR and economic troubles for trade deals.

It also creates a genuine likelihood of raising anti Chinese sentiment and increasing the threat of violent resistance.

[T-A]

> Does China really want to sent troops into Hong Kong?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Liberation_Army_Hon...

[b_tterc_p]

Interesting but not really contradictory. The fact that there are physically troops there isn’t all that significant. This Wikipedia suggests they’re not allowed to interfere and that they’re not supposed to support public order. Deploying these troops would be maybe slightly less controversial than new soldiers but still highly frowned upon. Sending Chinese troops to put down protestors would probably rally another third of the city state to the cause.

[loyukfai]

The garrison troops have yet to interfere in the domestic affairs of Hong Kong, at least directly.

If and when they do, it will be unlikely to end well.