[Frost1x]

I'm the same way but only about 15 years experience. I have a friend recently retired who has done a wide variety of software development since the era of punch cards (at least 40 years development) and he agrees with me entirely.

I'm not sure how people can provide any reasonable estimates, especially these days when technology is shifting even faster under your feet unless it's a clone of something you've already done in a specific set of technologies that haven't changed.

For me, I simply make a very conservative guess and use a 2x or 2.5x multiplier to be safe. I'm usually far ahead of schedule but there have been occasions I as happy I added a 2.5x multiplier in. Everyone is typically happy... the fact is, my estimates are garbage.

[danmaz74]

Even those estimates are good for people who have no clue if something can take 2 weeks or 6 months. They're not garbage.

[vnorilo]

This is what I do! I disagree on 'garbage', though, I would say that you sound like you estimate very well, and that factor of 2.5 uncertainty is reasonable given all the unknowns in this line of work.

[username90]

> Everyone is typically happy... the fact is, my estimates are garbage.

If people are happy with your estimates then they are good estimates.