[briancof]

Recognizing it was first-order approximation, two significant problems with the comparison: 1. E-bike riders likely to travel much faster. Since drag is quadratic, change in consumption significant. 2. The important energy comparison might not be manual bikes, but other modes of transit. A current driver/transit-rider might choose to bike 15 miles each way only if on an e-bike.

[alvah]

"A current driver/transit-rider might choose to bike 15 miles each way only if on an e-bike." This is absolutely the case for me - an e-bike makes the difference between my 27km commute being viable in a sensible time frame, or having to drive.

[carlob]

> E-bike riders likely to travel much faster.

I'm not sure that is significant. In most countries e-bikes are constrained not to exceed 25 km/h when under power. I've commuted by bike for some parts of my life (I now work from home) and I usually overtake e-bikes unless I'm climbing a pretty steep hill.

On the other hand your second part is probably correct: I recall reading that when Canada started mandating helmets it had a negative effect on life expectancy because people were using bikes less and that had an impact on cardiovascular health that exceeded the increase in safety. So you might be right that the increase in usage overweights the change in efficiency.

On the other hand I would never leave a bike that is worth more than 100 euros parked outdoors on a pole in most European and American cities even with a decent U-lock. Add to that weather and electrical components and you end up with something you can use only if you have an indoors parking.