[SwellJoe]

"This is precisely the thinking that leads to getting disrupted by a different business model."

Please re-read my whole comment (and the one above it). I've explicitly discussed paradigm shifts that change the shape of the industry. A "different business model" is obviously one such type of shift. But given the description of the situation, I don't believe the OP is in such a moment in the history of his industry.

[skmurphy]

I did, it's just that I agree with josefresco's comment, or at least see that scenario as more likely. We have different interpretations of the same information. My other point is the firms that get disrupted always see the alternative as less attractive.

[SwellJoe]

If that's the case, we can't save his company. If he's being blindsided by a significantly different way of doing business, and one that undercuts his already razor thin margins by a large amount, then his company is already dead and just doesn't know it yet.

That could be the case, of course. So, you're right, we are just taking a different view of the provided data.