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by vladTheInhaler
2556 days ago
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I hardly think it's fair to say that Nate Silver isn't interested in accountability for his predictions. The site recently finished a retrospective that tries to address this issue: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/ Probability theory, whether frequentist or otherwise, is "just" math. Identifying that mathematical structure with real-world events is always going to involve a judgment call. So if your framework requires assumptions that don't hold in the real world, then maybe it's not the appropriate framework to use. Because clearly people are making decisions based on numbers between 0 and 1, and they're not generally losing big time. |
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