[village-idiot]

This isn’t terribly surprising.

First, we always overestimate new technology’s ability to solve problems, while underestimating the side effects. So any grandiose claims about self driving cars fixing congestion should’ve been met by more skepticism in the press.

Second, we already know that people are willing to spend a large amount of money on personal transit that goes above and beyond the bare necessities of transit, at least in rich western nations. I see no reason why that would suddenly stop once the vehicle’s owner is no longer behind the wheel.

[vidarh]

Self driving cars in areas with poor public transport will likely make things worse. Self driving cars in areas with good public transport combined with apps that schedule combination routes, and fleet management that makes better decisions about driving patterns, could be a big benefit.

E.g. the minicab and Uber drivers around mine are often more clueless than I am about traffic patterns nearby, despite the fact I don't drive myself. Realtime coordination to pick less congested routes dynamically could improve things a lot.

And apps like Citymapper that don't just suggest a single mode of transport has a lot of potential. In London they're experimenting with bus routes of their own. The long term potential is being able to promise you short waits and low cost by e.g. telling you to wait for the bus when the bus is near, but sending a car - rideshare or not - if there's a wait, and dynamically scheduling minibuses for high traffic routes not covered by the standard routes, for example.

I'd prefer that over a car the whole way a lot of the time, because living somewhere highly urban, driving the whole way can almost never compete on speed, but figuring out the optimal route that keeps changes few and waits low is often tricky. E.g. Citymapper just recently introduced me to a route I had no idea was an option - a station I've never used before because it's too far too walk and awkward to get to by bus, and so I didn't even know what trains go from there. But suggesting an Uber there and train from there, and a second change got me where I wanted to go ~20 minutes faster with the same number of changes as if I'd gone the route I expected to take. Mixing and matching like that has the potential to make taking a car the whole way a lot less attractive for a lot of routes where people do opt for that today.

But it does require a lot of things to go right. For starters, multi-mode transport apps that are free to pick the optimal mix needs to win the battle for being consumers first choice in planning trips.

[matthewfelgate]

>Second, we already know that people are willing to spend a large amount of money on personal transit that goes above and beyond the bare necessities of transit, at least in rich western nations. I see no reason why that would suddenly stop once the vehicle’s owner is no longer behind the wheel.

The success of Uber suggests that some people are choosing not to purchase private vehicles. But we don't know if this is limited to Millennials.

[TeMPOraL]

> The success of Uber suggests that some people are choosing not to purchase private vehicles. But we don't know if this is limited to Millennials.

The success of Uber only tells you that a) some people use taxis, and b) a pirate taxi using VC money to offer rates at below market level will be popular with taxi users, for obvious reasons.

[village-idiot]

How many people do you know that have replaced a personal car with Uber? I’ve known two people like that, and everyone else I know uses them in place of traditional taxis.

[sokoloff]

I use Uber/Lyft as a replacement for cabs to/from the airport, but almost all of my other usage of them is in replacement for driving my own car into the city. (In other words, these are trips that I'd otherwise take, but not via taxi.)