[bena]

People just way too often ape legal procedural shows where people will exclaim that "all this evidence is circumstantial" as if that's an actual problem.

You can say that about most evidence. Even the classic "smoking gun" metaphor is an example of circumstantial evidence.

It's just a way for people to dismiss a claim without actually having to argue against a claim. If the evidence is tenuous or weak, explain why.

For instance, the fact that Solotshi is similar to Satoshi. That's just dumb. If you're going to pick a pseudonym to hide your identity for the long term, you don't pick one that's just a variation of your name.

However, if every other piece of evidence was much better, then dude just picked a bad pseudonym.

And we also have to consider that a lot of weak signals can become a strong signal. Like the name thing is what I'd call an extremely weak signal. But if there's an overwhelming flood of such weak signals, then it starts looking much more likely.