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Yes, this is how it will eventually happen for Facebook if they don't reinvent themselves (and they never do).

It doesn't even have to be that dramatic. People change and drift apart. The older you get, the more extreme the examples become. I often forget the names of people I once considered friends for life.

The more they pile up, the more Facebook changes from keeping in touch to unwilling voyeurism. The FB killer will be something that deftly handles change.