[sytelus]

Anecdote: I've seen recession prediction virtually every month by some trustworthy brilliant person during past 2 years. One of them was Mark Cuban who actually went all cash in last October/November. This is what he had done just before year 2000 bubble popped and he was one of the few surviving billionaires. To his credit, market did went bust on December 21, 2018 with massive drop of 20%. I was literally in awe of Cuban's instinct but then the market almost immediately recovered like nobody's business. I'm now suspecting that government has developed some extraordinary tools to keep market stable. Many conventional laws of economics are pretty much defunct at this point. Massive QEs, printing money and racking up debt has done nothing to cause inflation or any adverse effect. Even Iran situation, North Korea stuff, Seria bombing - all of that barely even registered on market. There is something very very strange going on.

[segmondy]

"Back in the spring of 1720, Sir Isaac Newton owned shares in the South Sea Company, the hottest stock in England. Sensing that the market was getting out of hand, the great physicist muttered that he ' could calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of the people.' Newton dumped his South Sea shares, pocketing a 100% profit totaling £7,000. But just months later, swept up in the wild enthusiasm of the market, Newton jumped back in at a much higher price — and lost £20,000 (or more than $3 million in [2002-2003's] money. For the rest of his life, he forbade anyone to speak the words 'South Sea' in his presence."

https://www.businessinsider.com/isaac-newton-lost-a-fortune-...

[raducu]

Massive QE is the right answer -- markets are not controlled by average Joe, but by people who benefit form the QE.

Wasn't the crash timed with the FED tightening moves?

[grey-area]

This is quite normal in a late stage bull market. There are often a series of dips and vacillations before it turns bear.

Most of the indicators have been flashing red for some time though, so I think the coming recession is no surprise.