[PakG1]

Back in the 90s, all my friends and I used ICQ. Then something weird happened. I can't explain why, but everyone started switching to MSN Messenger (this was in Canada, I understand that AIM was more popular in the US). It probably had to do with the nicer UI, but I can't be sure. Basically, ICQ became irrelevant, except in Russia. It's a perfect example of how all your friends can move somewhere else. The other great example: Friendster.

[netcan]

Good point. Networks are good, but they aren't a total lock-in.

However, Facebook has some things going for it that ICQ didn't. for example:

Grandmothers - Facebook started with the early adopters just like everyone else. But they slowly moved (and are still moving) down the curve, past the 'what's a browser' middle and down to the users for whom email is a big challenge. People who basically don't use computers except for occasional tasks that someone else has shown them how to do and set everything up. These people don't switch easily.

[trybaj]

Today's grandmothers won't be around for long. The core generation that joined Facebook because it was cool will become boring old people themselves, and that's why Facebook won't survive.

My fiancée and I are in our late 20s. We were in college when Facebook came out and arrived at the party early. We built our social networks to share the fruits of our newfound "adult" freedoms- namely pictures of inappropriate Halloween costumes and drinking games.

Now, Facebook is different. My mom is on it. My mother-in-law-to-be is on it. But because my fiancée and I are on it, our children likely won't be. It won't be a fun place to share things you don't want mom to know. Mom will be checking in and leaving embarrassing messages on your wall. I think my kids will probably find somewhere else to hang out. It will probably have a name I can't seem to remember, and I will likely embarrass them in front of their friends by pronouncing it wrong or misunderstanding its key features.

Social networks are binding, but they're highly generational. Unless Facebook can figure out how to get my future kids to think its cool, it's toast in 20 years or less.

--Edited for grammar--

[brc]

Nailed it.

Already I see awkward parent/child relationships. To the parent, they love feeling 'in touch'. To the child, it's just embarassing that their parents are hanging around on Facebook. As they move into the embarrassing photos/stories, they're either going to find a new platform or create a separate identity, or something, to conduct themselves online in private.

SMS was the killer app for teens because they could exchange messages with friends (a) cheaply and (b) without being overheard.

[Retric]

Early adopters have already started to abandon Facebook. However, they come back because there is no better option.

What's going to kill Facebook is something better. Less spam, better privacy, etc, but it still needs to be at least as good as Facebook to get anywhere. And that’s going to take a seriously long runway a great development team and awesome management. Look for a profitable nitch like LinkedIn that just keeps growing.

[anthuswilliams]

Even social sites with lock-in can still lose market share because you can socialize on multiple platforms. I still have a yahoo email address cos my grandmother likes to send me email forwards. But when I make new connections, or reconnect with old ones, I don't do it on yahoo.

Grandmothers won't save Facebook. They'll allow Facebook to linger on like a maladapted dinosaur or the old VAX your IT department uses as shelf space. But in a post-Facebook world, just because we all keep Facebook accounts to maintain ossified relationships doesn't mean Zuck still has social relevance.

[stoney]

Yes, but I don't use facebook because my Grandma's on it (well, actually she isn't, but if she was it wouldn't matter).

If I found a new social network that I thought offered something new I would start using that in parallel to facebook. Then I'd use the new one more as more people moved over, until eventually facebook just became a way of emailing my grandma.

A lot of these facebook killer conversations seem to be based on the idea that I'm only going to use one social network. I'd argue that's not true at all.

[zalew]

in Poland ICQ was smashed by GaduGadu, a local IM raised from an SMS sending app, additionally it was the .com bubble times and when the web was raising crazy around here. Yet I remember that fellow nerds and I used ICQ for some time until it was full of spam, so I assume spam was what 'killed' it in most countries.

[whatusername]

Australia was the same. ICQ --> MSN MSN had one killer feature -- it saved your contact list on the server. This meant that any time I had a new computer (or re-installed my OS) My MSN list was still there -- ICQ I needed to add everyone again.

[js3309]

AIM and ICQ are not "social networks". I can't ever imagine my parents using AIM or ICQ ever. But they are on facebook. Good luck getting them switched over to another service.

Facebook has 500+ mil users. Most of them, non techies.

Friendster actually proves my point...they shot themselves in the foot. Facebook exists because of mismanagement by Friendster.

[gigawatt]

Isn't it conceivable that the next social network will start as a place for the younguns to get away from their parents? If you were 15, would you rather be at a party with all your friends and everyone's parents and grandparents and aunts and weird cousins or at a party with just your friends?

[jokermatt999]

If that's the case, then the feature set would be focused toward a younger crowd, rather than the privacy features and such that people discussing a "Facebook killer" usually mention. I wonder if it could possibly be a step backwards in some areas.

[nzjames]

4chan anyone?

[lancewiggs]

Yes - 4Chan is the new FB. It's deliberately unappealing, it's the new generation. I liken Mys[ace/bebo/friendster/facebook/linked-in/4Chan/whatever to bars and nightclubs. They can get popular for a while, even wildly popular, but eventually they go out of fashion. Those 'pubs' with a slower cadence like Linked-in will take longer to die, but will also never reach the dizzy heights of the biggest 'clubs' like mySpace and Facebook.