| >> men will continue to withdraw from nature in order to create an environment that will suit them better. Context of the 1964 prediction: Very limited use of AC, and of insulated windows. Hot-water radiators. Window films don't exist; limited window tinting. Daylight-equivalent electric lighting is in limited commercial use. Confounds: Residential tech diverged from commercial/industrial. Residential still emphasizes natural light, and blends outdoors, in part due to expensive energy. So, "yes". >> electroluminescent panels will be in common use. Ceilings and walls will glow softly, and in a variety of colors that will change at the touch of a push button. Context: Hanging incandescent fixtures. Introduction of hanging ceilings with embedded lighting. Confounds: Electroluminescent tech never came together, remaining dim, short-lived, and power hungry. Gas-discharge fluorescent tube dominated. Residential remained incandescent, eventually switching to CFD and LEDs. Window film invented a couple of years later. Window film, window insulation, and AC, enabled glass walls. Ceilings - yes (inset fixtures and diffusers).
Walls - yes (glass) and no (other).
Variety of colors - no/kinda (aside from 1960's transients and customized dorm rooms, only limited blackbody colors).
Change - no. So, "kinda"? The prediction bet on the wrong horse, and lost properties specific to it. But it was partially saved by changing window tech and glass walls. >> Windows need be no more than an archaic touch, and even when present will be polarized to block out the harsh sunlight. The degree of opacity of the glass may even be made to alter automatically in accordance with the intensity of the light falling upon it. > 2 - Windows mostly obsolete - no ... A conversation in 2034: Omari: Windows are archaic? That's silly. Li Xiu Ying: Yeah (gestures to create a shared AR window). Windows, as a 1964-like dominating primary tech for lighting and cooling, do seem archaic. Confounds: Window tint and window insulation reduced the downsides of windows, so high ceilings and fans went away, but windows didn't. People like natural light. Reduced importance of shades/blinds/drapes has left them mostly manual, and less common. Adjustable-opacity window tech never came together. Archaic - kinda.
Polarized - yes.
Opacity alters - no. Story: Why does the newish MIT Media Lab's facade have a lattice of bars? The building code has a 1970's limit on window percentage, to save energy. That's now obsoleted by better films, but... code. Story: It's summer in the 1950's, and your office near the top of the Empire State Building is sweltering. What do you do? Open some windows to get a cross-ventilating breeze going, of course, what else is there? Takeaways: Bet on trends, not single horses. It seems common when judging past predictions, to neglect the past context, and thus to underestimate how much they got right. |