[emp]

Is 10 years normal for the lifespan of a car? Mine is 23 now, still works fine, and I feel is nicer than similar new cars in terms of interior finishes, hydraulic power steering, actual buttons for climate control that do their one thing well.

I don't drive much, but then I don't remember any childhood cars of my parents being at end of life at 10 years, and those were used in daily commutes.

Do the batteries decay over time? If a Leaf only has say 8k miles a year, will the batteries simply fail to hold charge after 22 years?

[sehugg]

It's common for a major component to break after 10-12 years and its repair costs exceed the resale value of the vehicle. On my last car, it was the AC compressor. OTOH, some models like the 90s Toyota Camry seem to last forever.

Also, car maintence costs have exceeded inflation over time: https://www.officialdata.org/Motor-vehicle-maintenance-and-r...

[kop316]

Something that has always bothered me is "resale value" of a car. I have a car with ~215000 miles, and its "resale" value is $1.5k. However, I gladly paid for $500 for a minor repair on it (I had to replace a rim due to hitting a curb), even if it was supposedly a third of the value of the car. Even when/if the engine/transmission goes out, I've considered rebuilding or replacing it, because I see little reason to pay so much more for a new car when the current one is in such good condition.

[Scoundreller]

Must have been a nice rim!

As you experienced, spending $500 to keep a $1500 car from becoming a brick is a great value.

If/when I have the time, my plan is to take cars like this and part them out. Lots of people out there willing to pay for a working OEM part to de-Brick their car.

If you’re patient enough; selling rims one by one would pay off. Nobody really wants to replace all 4 when they really needed one.

[kop316]

Yeah it was, I bought a more expensive car when I was younger. When this one gives out I'm getting a cheaper one (hopefully without phone home electronics too).

[twblalock]

Your car won't last forever. You will need to buy another car sometime. Money you spend on repairing your current car could be put toward purchasing the next one.

Let's say a transmission replacement costs $1000 for your car (that's low, by the way). You could sell your car now for $1500 and buy a another one, or you can spend $1000 keeping it on the road for a few more years, sell it for less than it is worth now, and then buy another one. That $1000 was wasted since you had to buy another car anyway -- you would have saved that $1000 if you bought the replacement car sooner.

[dual_basis]

How are you getting $1500 for a car that needs $1000 worth of transmission work?

That only works if you can see into the future and know that you will need transmission work soon, and then it requires you to find a buyer who doesn't share that opinion. Essentially, you have to screw someone over.

Otherwise, if the transmission is already broken, the situation is that you either pay $1000 and get a working car (ie. repair the transmission) or sell your car for $500 and then buy a new one.

[kop316]

I agree, but going back to your analogy, I would rather spend the $1000 and not have a car payment for another few years (assuming a $200 for a year, that's $2400 I'm not paying).

My bigger worry is if I get into an accident, the value of the car is so low that the insurance will total it, and now I'm stuck with buying a new car.

[ce4]

exactly, that's just maintenance costs. Replacement costs would've been even more for a newer car (bigger rim, more expensive design).

[bertil]

Both car parts and battery longevity depend on how you use them more than how long — so those statements are about overall statics; there will always be anecdotes.

This likely means that a majority of Leaf cars will need repairs that cost more than the car is worth on the market, while the battery still has value, although likely not in a new car as they will be worn out a bit and technology will have ten years to improve by then. Elon Musk has already said that Telsa is planning on re-using batteries from Telsa cars into on-grid batteries, where weight is less of an issue, so partial batteries are fine. That’s likely what will happen to Leaf batteries in 10 years too.

[dugditches]

Environment matters a lot.

Road salt and Ocean Air destroys car bodies. The drivetrain can be fine, but the body just falls apart around it.

There's going to be an interesting time for Used Cars coming up, with all the electronics and complex parts. Where cars could be worked on in your garage or local shop, now need a trip to a dealer to work out the Electronic Wizardry.

Followed by the dying out of non-diesel ICE shops turning into just Brake and Tire places.

[kevan]

I've had good luck avoiding body rust in Minnesota, but on my last car (sold at 15yrs old) I ended up replacing every suspension and brake component over the last 3 years due to corrosion. My current car is 10 years old and I've already replaced a couple seized calipers.

[qes]

I have a 2007 Saab and even the dealership can't sort out the ghosts in the electronic wizardry. Not at any remotely reasonable cost. It's basically deal with it or spend thousands of dollars replacing at least the main computer, which has assumed far too many functions. The variety of things that malfunction together is absurd, and slightly frightening. I can't trust that an issue with the door locks or climate controls isn't going to manifest as the engine turning off or the steering column lock engaging mid-drive.

[Scoundreller]

I find it a funny thought because, in my experience, the OBD port often tells you exactly what is wrong, or at least where to look.

And if you have a common car (like my parents’ Corolla), an ambiguous code can tell a lot when you check the internet and you get directed to the most common failure mode.

[semi-extrinsic]

Trying to look up statistics on this, and what I find is very strange:

Both in Europe and in the US, average age of vehicles on the road is given as ~ 11 years, while average age at scrappage is given as ~ 15 years.

How do you even make an age distribution that agrees with those numbers? How do you make those numbers agree with the statistics of vehicles sold per year, which is relatively steady?

[Zenst]

A few ways when you use averages and only use one type of average - mean average without including mode or median average types.

The age of on the road vehicles can be skewed by new cars. The age of scrappage can equally be skewed by a few new cars written off and as such, scrapped. Then we do not know average time of the road, the transition time of sitting in a garage/off-road and then scrapped a few years later. That could be a short period or decades. That again would skew averages.

As you can see - I have a pet hate about averages when they just use the mean average. Without knowing the other two averages or complete access to the data-sets - a biased perspective can and will be the outcome more often than not.

It's like a company employing 100 people - 99 earn 10k a year and one earns 1 million a year. The company can and often will say that their employees earn on average 19.9k a year. When the median and mode forms of averages would both in this instance yield an answer of 10k.

I'd be most happy if any use of averages has to include all 3 forms of averages - after all, we do teach them in school's, let's use them and save so much confusion, bias and statistical abuse.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Average

[billforsternz]

I like your thinking. I've always thought mean, median and mode should be thought of as different possible "average" definitions. But common usage always seems to have average == mean, and the other two as slightly less important ideas. This Wikipedia article pleasingly implies my (and your) preferred model is actually the correct one.

[Someone]

The number of cars is growing (https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicle...)

If it grows faster than sales, fewer cars must be taken of the road.

Could be as simple as households holding on to cars longer because they cannot afford to replace them, because modern cars last longer, or because they can afford to have a second/third car in the garage, but not a new one.

[random314]

It might seem like the average age should be 7.5 years but cars that last longer than 15 years will contribute more to the sample than the average car, thus giving an average of 11.

[justin66]

> Do the batteries decay over time?

Think about any product using rechargeable batteries that you have ever owned, and you'll get the idea. There will be a gradual reduction in range until the batteries really need to be replaced.