[acqq]

> I know a fair amount about programming, math, and simulations, and I don't trust anyone who says they can predict a chaotic system 50-100 years into the future.

Then you obviously don't know basic physics. The average temperature is much easier to predict (if some worse feedback doesn't get involved to make the development even worse, that is) than the microscopic "chaotic movements." I rather believe that what's behind your statement is that you just don't care what is going to happen in 50 or 100 years.

[civility]

> Then you obviously don't know basic physics.

Ugh, if you're going to just attack me, why not jump to the big guns and call me a shill for the oil company or some other cliche.

> The average temperature is much easier to predict

If you do enough averaging over a long enough period, this can be true. I mean, we can all tell the average position of a double pendulum. I'm guessing you think 1, 10, or 100 years is enough time to average temperature. Try looking at the last 400,000 years and tell me how well you can predict those swings.

> I rather believe that what's behind your statement is that you just don't care what is going to happen in 50 or 100 years.

You can believe anything you want, but I doubt you used the scientific method to get there.

[acqq]

> Try looking at the last 400,000 years and tell me how well you can predict those swings.

Actually if we had so reliable measurements for that period like we do for last hundred years, it would not be hard.

Your arguments have no basis, just an attempt to distract from the facts by grasping for what is not being discussed (e.g. 400 thousand years precise inference). Given the information we do have we have very good understanding of the relevant phenomena.