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by thefounder 2581 days ago
So this means we should expect big wars in Europe again? Without nukes the deterrent will no longer exist.
2 comments

No Latin American countries have nukes, and despite spending most of the 19th century beating the stuffing out of each other on a regular basis [1] there's been almost zero inter-state violence since WW2.

Modern Russia is also nowhere near the unstoppable conventional military juggernaut that the Cold War-era USSR was.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conflicts_in_South_Ame...

You'd also have to consider the likelihood of one getting through your laser defences, and what the cost of protecting your country with these would be.

If you have a 99% chance of stopping a missile, but your adversary has tens or hundreds of thousands of missiles to fire at you, those aren't great odds.

Plus in a pinch, modern societies could probably come up with some fairly hideous deterrent weapons that didn't require missile delivery.

That’s a good point, and in fact probability of error doesn’t even need to come into play. If you can destroy 10 missiles per second with probability 1, then you have a 0% chance of stopping 11 missiles at once. Massive simplifications here but the point stands. Scale matters.