[stillsut]

AGI is our generation's Nanotechnology. From first principles, it's reasoned, it could build anything - including itself! Despite this 100 Quadrillion dollar idea looming on the horizon for two decades, nobody ever makes material progress, or, gets all that excited about it anymore.

Instead of General intelligence, AI will be deployed for several decades as a suite of Specialized intelligences. I think it will completely transform creative work, where writing, music and visual arts, and "streaming content" are almost universally produced with a human as a first mover but the computer doing rendering, and major assists in brainstorming and editing.

On the other hand, I think it's going to be very difficult to replace the average middle manager with Watson 12.0 - it's hard for me to articulate why but it comes down to who I'd want to work for. Meanwhile, I'd have no problem with watching GoT season 33 where 1,800 frames of a Peter Dinklage sprite are churned out every week in Adobe Simalacrum.

The point as it pertains to OpenAI's value prop is that I think they are targeting the wrong market, and their secrecy and insularity will be counter-productive when success relies on helping content producers produce. In personal computer terms: you want to be the AppleII company, not the company that wins the contract for the Dept of Defense's mainframes.