| > Why would it crash hard unless interest rates go up by a significant amount? The 2008-era crisis in theory should have resulted in a whole heap of financial managers taking their companies bankrupt/to a place of horrid returns and being blacklisted from ever managing a lemonade stand. But they were bailed out, so now they got promotions instead for record returns or whatever it is they've been doing since. Since the finance industry has substantial control over what everyone else does, that leaks out into the real world. So, the intuition is that the system is being corrupted and people with no ability to make good decisions are being put in charge. At some point that should boil over. You can fit math models to that and guess which metric will blow out first. I'm not sure how much I buy that argument; people have an incredible ability to put up with suboptimal circumstances. But when you put idiots in charge there is always a risk that they do something spectacularly stupid so my personal guess is at some point the pensions crack and trigger something. It is a spectator sport in a way. Maybe America is productive enough that they can cope with a few bad eggs in the financial markets. Maybe the taxpayers can shoulder all burdens! POSTSCRIPT Just for fun, veering off topic. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_bank_mergers_in_the_Un... My interpretation is that something went wrong with bank regulation in the late 70s or early 80s. That is when the too-big-to-fail snowball started rolling; since then the stresses in the system seem to have been building. 2008 was a nasty blow. |
Yes, it's called "Ronald Wilson Reagan" and was worsened when Glass Steagall was repealed by Clinton in a remarkably short-sighted move. Another poster already mentioned the Savings and Loan crisis that happened in the 90s that took taxpayers for a ride to the tune of 130 billion dollars (around 250 billion dollars today). We should have learned from it but for some reason (probably greed) we made the same mistakes again with Glass-Steagall and then not even 10 years after repealing that we reaped our rewards: subprime mortgages falling apart and taxpayers footing the bill while thousands were foreclosed on. The same is happening with auto loans right now.
For some reason, if you are a white collar criminal, the rules don't apply to you. No matter how much you fuck up and how much illegal shit you do, none of it sticks. Look at Boeing. 346 people died, but I honestly bet the worst thing that happens to any of the managers that OK'd that plane is they lose their jobs; realistically they probably won't even lose that. Maybe not get a bonus.
The common thread here is not just with deregulation being seen as the magical cure all that fixes all our problems (because as it turns out, sometimes we have regulations for very good reasons!) but that there are simply no consequences for doing bad things if you are stealing from or hurting the average American taxpayer. The only difference between Bernie Madoff and the bankers in 2008 that grifted us all is that Madoff made the mistake of trying to steal from the rich.