[stillbourne]

Did you even bother reading the article? It basically states that we haven't learned out lessons from 2008. Was the 2008 crash because of fed interest rates? No, it was because of poorly designed high-interest junk bonds. The article says the same behavior that caused the market to tank in 2008 in happening again. Furthermore, if we take a look at past crashes we can see that there has been quite a few that were caused by the same issue, the early 80s Savings and Loan Crisis, the 89 bust of the high-yield bond market, the Dot Com Bubble of the early 2000s, and the Financial crisis of 2008 we all caused by Junk Bonds NOT the Fed.

Additionally the idea that new money flowing into the system from 401Ks, IRAs, etc is extremely naive. These are long term investment instruments sure but as they are generally not actively managed they are not immune to fluctuations in the market and the market is not immune to people who have the misfortune to retiring in an economic bust. I have observed this in the second person as my grandfather was well to do before 2008, did not listen to my advice to allocate his retirement money to a guaranteed interest plan until after the market hit bottom (which was the wrong time to do that) he basically lost 500k.

[maimeowmeow]

My take is that financial crises only happen on years that contain 8, 9, 0, but you should be more careful if the year ends in those numbers.

Looks like 2020 is going to be an unfortunant year.

[zzzzzzzza]

the big reason why the economy cyles is due to speculative cycle in land values, the booms/busts that aren't, are more like tulip bulb manias than real recessions/depressions

you could fix it by raising land value taxes high enough to extract all land rent and thus almost eliminating land speculation. At the same time you could get rid of most of our other taxes like capital gains and income taxes.

[AnimalMuppet]

> the big reason why the economy cyles is due to speculative cycle in land values

Baloney. The last one was, true. The Great Depression wasn't land, though - it was the stock market.

And rents these days don't primarily come from land. Your land value tax fits the economy of a few centuries ago, where the income primarily came from land, but it doesn't fit today, where the income primarily comes from other kinds of assets. (The value of the land it occupies is not how Amazon makes money.) All your land tax would do is penalize land compared to other asset classes. And, since you are wrong in your first point (that economic cycles are driven by speculation in land), you would do this for no good reason. That's probably not going to end well.

[TheOtherHobbes]

The current default isn't going to end well either.

The obvious solution is a wealth tax instead of income taxes. Take back the money that's been privatised, end the pointless and inefficient boom and bust hamster wheel, and spend bigly on productive social investment - education, gamechanger R&D, small business development, aerospace, robotics, AI, renewables, and other physical infrastructure.

Why isn't this happening already?

[AnimalMuppet]

I think that a wealth (or capital) tax makes more sense than a land tax.

Why hasn't it happened yet? I can see two reasons. Pick which one you think is more believable.

Reason 1: The rich don't like the idea of a wealth tax, and the rich have a lot of political clout.

Reason 2: The consequences could be rather negative. If the US creates a wealth tax, you'd see an exodus of assets and rich people. It would become a less attractive location for businesses (including startups). Would that be a net win for the US?

[zzzzzzzza]

yea, nice, how do you assess wealth? (you can't) also your wealth tax creates.. deadweight loss, lvt actually benefits the economy.

Meanwhile land wealth correlates very well with real wealth. Jeff bezos, for instance is one of the biggest landowners in the United States. And we already have a system in place to assess property values - and there's no way to hide property.

[AnimalMuppet]

You think that land is easier to assess the value of than other forms of wealth? That seems backwards. What's 1000 shares of Amazon worth? I can get a lot more accurate and current answer to that than I can to what some land is worth. (Yeah, it gets harder with some things like works of art.)

Jeff Bezos may be one of the biggest landowners in the US, but the cause and effect is backwards. He became rich off of something that didn't need much land (Amazon), and then later bought land with the money. But suppose he hadn't. Suppose he had been willing to just sit on his billions in Amazon stock. Should he escape the tax because he didn't buy land?

There's no way to hide property? There's not much way to hide stock ownership, either. (I agree that you can hide ownership of gold, diamonds, works of art, and bitcoin. But, frankly, not many people are using those as their primary stores of wealth.)

A wealth tax creates deadweight loss, whereas a land value tax benefits the economy? You need an argument to demonstrate that rather than just asserting it, at least if you want to actually convince anybody. From where I sit, it looks to me like a land value tax is just another kind of wealth tax, and is no more or less a deadweight loss than any other kind of wealth tax.

In fact, a wealth tax on stock might make stocks' values correspond more with their dividend rates. That might re-value things like Uber (valued at $90 billion but losing money hand over fist), which one could argue is a good thing. I could see that working in much the same way as you think a land value tax will work for real estate.

[zzzzzzzza]

bullshit. a big part of the assets the stock market is valuing is land/property. Banks lend out... mortgages... mcdonalds has... stores. There was totally a land value bubble preceding the great depression. Right now we have a land value bubble AND a nifty fifty style stock market bubble... but compare the dot com bust to the great recession. One was way more devastating than the other. Right now, tech companies have very high pe ratios... BUT if and when those profits actually materialize, they will be capitalized into land values.

Even 10000 years from now, when civilization consists of a bunch of satellites orbiting the sun in a dyson swarm, an analogous orbit value tax will be the most logical source of tax revenue for a far future government. Land is always a prequisite for doing business, and absent an LVT, private sector actors will benefit from the network effects inherent therein, instead of the community that that value was actually generated by.

What's your alternative to a LVT, a sales tax? A vat? Income tax? Deadweight loss, deadweight loss, deadweight loss.

[turk73]

Don't lose sight of the fact that in the case of 2008, we had absolute fraud taking place in both the mortgage bond market (abetted by the ratings agencies) as well as in the banks through fraudulent loan originations. Not only were there no-doc mortgages (NINJA loans), but also just outright fake people in the end. I don't think the same level of fraud is going on right now, okay maybe in cryptos...

Also, your grandfather shouldn't have had all his money in equities. He should have retired and lived out of a savings account while the markets rebounded then re-balanced into bonds/CDs as the market bounced back. I got whacked in '08, but then made it all back and more. 2 yrs. of living expenses in cash would have prevented losing 500K.