I'd put it closer to the HTC TyTn or first Google phone levels. It's still an enthusiasts thing, and there's no barrier for entry other than knowing what you want.
Once it becomes something that people want without knowing why, then it'll be iPhone level.
I think Oculus Quest could be the iPhone of VR. Keep in mind that the iPhone gen 1 didn’t sell well at all compared to just about any other iPhone generation.
It’s not about selling well. It’s revolutionizing the field. I don’t think the quest would be considered that.
It’s great and will bring more people to the market but it is still to be seen if that price point for something only a single person can enjoy at a time will be a game changer.
The iPhone brought mobile internet browsing into mainstream consciousness; we were already addicted to the Internet before it arrived, so it's no wonder that iPhones and smartphones took off.
The Oculus on the other hand has to provide not just good ergonomics, but also content that showcases the hardware well.
I had a Galaxy S7 and GearVR headset in 2016. Some of the games were cool like a TRON-style Pong game, but most of the content was awful, stuff like "explore a famous museum", which was all badly optimized, pixelated 3D video.
Even if Oculus launched with a VR version of a product that's known to be highly sticky engagement wise (e.g Fortnite), I don't know if people would go for it. Fortnite is already on every device anyway, are people really so into it that they want to be fully immersed visually when playing?
It already has. Four of my buddies that play Rocket League almost exclusively have dropped AU$300 on a headset because we showed them Beat Saber at a LAN party, and they haven't stopped playing it since.