[CPLX]

> The expected value of early stage investing is certainly higher than lotteries in the US.

That’s arguable.

State lotteries are highly regulated and transparent and typically return 50% of their capital to participants.

[elamje]

That’s fair. For the overall game you can expect to lose 50% though, with a handful of outsized windfalls going to 1/1000000 people.

In principle it’s more about why a poor person can access lotteries but not private investments, not the exact math on E[X]