Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by integrate-this 2602 days ago
I remember when a bunch of nobel prize winning economists founded "Long-term Capital Management" on the theory that, because they only traded relative value arbitrage, they couldn't lose money. Then they levered the strategy without realizing that these value arbitrages could shift against them and result in additional margin requirements. Those were the smartest people in finance at that time, and they nearly took down the world's financial system. The only real similarity here is the "long-term" name, but I don't think that anyone with a true understanding of capital markets would name their firm "long-term" after that fiasco.
3 comments

so, your argument is that using the phrase "long-term" is forever poisoned?

doesn't seem super strong.

The equivalent would be an architect naming their new building project 'the world trade center'. A lot of people just aren't going to touch it because of the image it evokes. LTCM nearly broke the world's financial system and I don't think that's an exaggeration. Naming a firm LTSE is a good way to make sure a lot of people won't want to work with you.
The name also reminded me of LTCM. I was working at Credit Suisse when that went down. I think if you were in the financial space during that time you'd also suggest steering clear of four word names starting with "Long Term..."
They did know that they could lose money. They just underestimated the amount of risk involved, as well as the level of correlation between their different trades. Fat tails, black swans, etc etc