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by adventured 2597 days ago
> What do you think is Venezuela situation?

I can't speak personally to Tunisia's situation. However the people of Venezuela are starving to death. They're no more than two or three years from genocide by starvation at this point (or otherwise requiring desperate, massive food aid from the UN, Russia, China, or whichever countries they would allow to deliver it).

On the food security index:

https://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com/Country

Tunisia ranks 51 out of 113. Venezuela ranks 78 out of 113. That's a lagging ranking, things have gotten much worse in Venezuela over the last six months and year.

A year ago, when things weren't as bad as they are now, the situation was:

"Venezuelans reported losing on average 11 kilograms (24 lbs) in body weight last year [in 2017] and almost 90 percent now live in poverty, according to a new university study on the impact of a devastating economic crisis and food shortages. "

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-food/venezuelan...

On a monetary, economic front, their inflation rate is so high as to be entirely pointless to track. They're formally a failed state with no functioning currency or central bank system.

Their economy has collapsed by 80% to 90%, in the last five years:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-46999668

Tunisia's GDP per capita has declined in the last several years, back to about where it was in 2006/2007. They've seen a ~18% decline approximately, from the peak. A lot of that is dollar conversion decline however, only a small portion of it is real domestic economic contraction. Venezuela's collapse is a severe domestic contraction, a near total obliteration of all business and private enterprise, including basic stores (now entirely empty everywhere). Very little of Venezuela's decline is an issue of currency conversion against the jump in the US dollar: it's a flat out, straight down collapse.

When the US dollar took off on its historic run five years ago, it hit a lot of developing economies, including Tunisia. Tunisia's GDP per capita peaked in 2014, and began to decline, exactly in line with the USD taking off. Developing countries as diverse as Brazil, Russia, Pakistan, Turkey and Indonesia were hit by the same effect at the same time. The USD spike is also what pushed Venezuela under water, as it hammered the price of oil downward.

On a basic health front, diseases like malaria, diarrhea, typhoid fever and hepatitis A have skyrocketed in cases. Malaria has gone from relatively rare (15k-30k cases), to common (half a million annual cases), in Venezuela. At this point there is no functioning healthcare system in Venezuela, and essentially no medicine available to 99% of the population.

In terms of consumer goods, nearly all basic consumer goods were gone 18 to 24 months ago. They increasingly lack nearly all basic consumer staples, from diapers to toilet paper.

When it comes to access to safe drinking water, that too has essentially entirely disappeared. Water security is now a daily battle for nearly all the people of Venezuela:

"The water scarcity has driven people out of their homes and into the streets in search of any source, potable or not. ... Caracas, a city of 2 million, sits in a valley some 3,000 feet above sea level. The public water system relies on a succession of pumps that require massive amounts of energy. Without electricity, the water doesn’t flow."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/why-are-yo...

Venezuela is seeing a severe flight of population, whereas Tunisia's population is solidly expanding year after year. Venezuela has seen maybe as many as three to four million people flee the country during the crisis. These people fleeing Venezuela are often living in imminent fear of starving to death, or the fear that that is what's to come next.

1 comments

Parts of Tunisia are definitely doing as bad or worse. I don't know about the average guy. I'm neither one; nor there is any reliable data.