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by mifeng 2604 days ago
Stock prices are based on the present value of future profits, so pointing out that Lyft is unlikely to be profitable for a long time is spot-on.
4 comments

Since we're all being pedantic here... stock prices are based on the value in which investors place bids on the equity value per share of the company. Investors typically value that number on the present value of expected future profits, but like all complex systems, it's never that simple.

pbreit is also potentially correct - software companies have the capability of producing massive windfall cashflows (and therefore profits) and hence why the market cap is so high.

What isn't being talked about is that a path to profitability isn't clear. All of us armchair financial analysts don't have any insight into:

- What are the unit economics of a car ride and what elasticity of pricing is there in the market?

- Is the fundamental thesis of future value all based on self-driving cars?

- Once particular markets mature, what operating expenses can effectively be "turned off"? Has the company already proven this in their mature markets?

Personally I think uber and lyft are doomed as companies and will go the way of Groupon, but deriving that analysis by reading quarterly financial statements on net income is a fool's errand.

PS - And yes the parent commenter clearly lacks basic public market equity acumen as $775M was a quarterly revenue...smh

The idea that Lyft will not close the gap of its administrative expenses is unlikely. Especially if Uber is operating at a lower administrative cost.
Hi Mike!
It could be massively profitable tomorrow.
For values of "could" that include "definitely will not be."
"Tomorrow" was facetious, I apologize. But based on existing 50% contribution margins it's quite clear it could achieve earnings in the near term.

But of course with such contribution margins and growth rates it would be silly to hang on to cash.