[scolby33]

Why is the conclusion that the operator is padding its schedule instead of simply that the busses run on time? I understand that in the real world the former seems more likely, but I don’t see how that conclusion is supported by the data presented. (Caveat lector: my prob & stats is weaker than it should be; there’s a good chance I’m missing something obvious.)

[simplesleeper]

The schedule is not necessarily padded. The point of the piece is making it clear that London bus timetables are not in any way a source of truth, but a contract that operators have to work towards achieving. It is doubtless that they would have some input into what times are accepted as the contract and would only accept one they think they could manage to operate - so greater times than would generally be achievable.

As a londoner, if you wanted a timetable more based on truth, it would look more like the attached graphic on the page - an analysis of the spread of waiting times.