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by crazygringo 2603 days ago
The paper's own discussion section explicitly acknowledges potential weaknesses:

This study has several important limitations. First, the quasi-experimental design of our study limits our ability to draw any causal conclusions between the release of 13 Reasons Why and increased suicide rates in young people in the U.S. Nevertheless, the time series and forecasting approaches employed in this study allow us to make credible inferences about this association. The initial increase in youth suicide rates in the month immediately following the series release is concordant with a prior report showing a spike in Internet searches about suicide in the month following release,46 and a small single-hospital study showing an increase in suicide attempt admissions after the series’ premiere. Second, we were unable to assess whether the observed increase in youth suicide rates was attributable to the portrayal of suicide in the series, a lack of adherence to media guidelines (e.g., failure to provide national suicide prevention resources until later months), or other factors. The observation that the series was first released on March 31, 2017 and suicide rates increased that month also raises questions about effects of pre-release media promotion of the series premiere. Third, we did not examine the impact of 13 Reasons Why on specific methods of suicide (e.g., suicide by cutting) due to small cell sizes, which would result in unstable estimates. Fourth, there may have been other events or unmeasured factors that occurred during the study period that might be associated with increased suicide rates. Fifth, our study may have lacked sufficient statistical power to detect a significant association in 10- to 17-year-old girls. Finally, as with most studies looking at possible contagion, we have little understanding of “dose” or context, including who specifically watched the series, when they watched, whether they binge-watched, if it was further discussed in peer-groups, how secondary discussions may have influenced vulnerable individuals, and whether the subsequent focus on suicide prevention may have actually mitigated some of the pronounced contagion effects.

2 comments

Thanks, I couldn't find the paper anywhere.

"Second, we were unable to assess whether the observed increase in youth suicide rates was attributable to the portrayal of suicide in the series."

This is so intellectually dishonest. It feels like a Motte and Bailey[0] argument. Scientists go around parading a correlation as causation. The title of the paper implies causality. They speculate idly about the causation in public. They make no effort to correct media sources suggesting a cause. And then, when challenged, they fall back on "well, nobody can establish causation here..."

I'm not even sure there's a correlation, let alone causation!

0: https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Motte_and_bailey

"credible inferences" means assumptions which fit the narrative we want to tell.

That disclaimer is basically a long-winded way of saying our study provides no evidence of anything.

However there is good reason to suspect a series about suicide would cause suicides.

"The average increase in motor vehicle fatalities is 9.12 percent in the week after a suicide story" (I love the extra 0.12 points!): https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/867044/

So the implication isn't so much about copycats, but about contagion.