Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by prometheus76 2612 days ago
I read this: https://www.minitab.com/en-us/Published-Articles/Weather-For...

And I extrapolated the results into forecasting the climate for 100 or 1,000 years from now and drew the conclusion that we are trying to model a complex system that can be affected drastically by small changes to the inputs of that system, and that we don't even come close to 1) understanding all the inputs into our climate, 2) do not understand the proper weighting of those inputs in a prediction model, and 3) even if we knew parts 1) and 2), our computational ability to account for both properly and produce a reliable prediction model doesn't exist.

Because of the nature of complex systems, making predictions on them is mathematically impossible. They're a non-reducible emergent behavior.