[sandworm101]

>> at low-cost with thousands of satellites each within 2-3 years.

Not for a few decades. The first customers will be/are airlines and ships, both of which are willing to pay top dollar. Then will be the governments (air forces etc) and logistics companies (fedex). Only once all those high-price/profit customers are happy will anyone talk about prices comparative with current consumer satellite options (explorenet etc).

The days of flat panels on rooftops talking to multiple low-orbit sats will come, just not for another generation or so. Cubesats won't fit the bill. These will be expensive networks of expensive sats.

[azernik]

They'll more likely be ISPs - SpaceX is pushing Starlink as backhaul to be attached to more conventional last-mile connections.

[duxup]

I'm hopeful but I've seen what seem like legitimate questions as far as how much bandwidth Starlink could actually provide a given customer once they ramp up customers. As far as I know there is no real guarantee or anything from Starlink (understandable) but I'm a bit concerned about that.

[azernik]

Yeah, just a difference of who the high-price customers are going to be.

[spaceheretostay]

It will not take SpaceX 'decades' to enable widespread commercial and personal use of the network. It is SpaceX's intent to use it as a revenue driver for the early work on the Martian colony, which is planned to get started in 5-6 years. Therefore Starlink must be operational long before then or the whole plan fails.

Also, I think Starlink's launches are planned to ramp up significantly in the next 1-2 years, immediately enabling multiple use cases popular in multiple very large consumer industries (gaming, streaming, etc).

[sandworm101]

Don't believe the hype. Any KSP nerd can work out how many sats would be needed for coverage at a given altitude (thousands to keep two above horizon in leo). Then any networking nerd can work out the number of hops and downlink stations needed (hundreds). Those thousands of sats will also need to be replaced as quickly as 10-15% per year, unless they are going to get their own propulsion systems, seriously multiplying their cost of launch/operation.

Take a look at the difficulties in setting up downlink stations at a global scale. To facilitate the dreamed bandwidth the number of hops between satellites will have to be as low as possible. Hundreds of large base stations will be needed. New land must be purchased, new laws passed, and old laws abolished. Unless spaceX intends to have Musk elected to the presidencies of many nations, the regulatory hurdles alone will take decades.

[gscott]

They will just make the roofs of Tesla's the downlink stations... problem solved!

[spaceheretostay]

I don't understand this logic. SpaceX's bread-and-butter is building technology and setting up processes to lower launch costs to hilariously low levels.

> Those thousands of sats will also need to be replaced as quickly as 10-15% per year, unless they are going to get their own propulsion systems, seriously multiplying their cost of launch/operation.

Multiplying by.....10%? I think they would laugh off those costs and easily pay for that with the huge margin they are likely to be eyeing.

> Take a look at the difficulties in setting up downlink stations at a global scale. To facilitate the dreamed bandwidth the number of hops between satellites will have to be as low as possible. Hundreds of large base stations will be needed. New land must be purchased, new laws passed, and old laws abolished.

Can you cite this? What new laws must be passed and what old laws abolished? Also,

> Unless spaceX intends to have Musk elected to the presidencies of many nations, the regulatory hurdles alone will take decades.

This is hyperbole and clearly not true. Countries make deals with businesses all the time, especially when the business is likely to bring opportunity and money into the country. I have a hard time imagining a world where leaders and countries are anti-SpaceX to the point of stalling negotiations until Elon is 75 years old and already lives on Mars.

Lastly, citing unknown video game nerds and believing their interpretations over the CEO of a public company (yes I'll count Tesla here, it speak to his dedication of running global-scale changing companies) and the specifications of a private company with ~10,000 employees? It just seems less likely to be true that video game nerds know best here.

[sandworm101]

Downlinking issues in Canada, not exactly a hostile marketplace:

>>> The government decision: Primary telemetry, telecommand and control facilities and network operations centres must be located within Canadian territory. A description and planned location of these facilities must be included in licence applications. The final location of these facilities must be confirmed by Milestone 1, with construction completed by the launch of the first satellites (Milestone 3), as defined in CPC 2-6-02, Licensing of Space Stations.

https://spaceq.ca/the-government-issues-revised-satellite-li...

Read up on space law. Read about who controls data from spacecraft, who has veto power over it, and who controls the radio spectrum needed to talk to satellites.

>>> Lastly, citing unknown video game nerds and believing their interpretations over the CEO of a public company

If you play KSP you know of what I speak. A CEO cannot overcome physics. Anyone who plays KSP knows what it would mean to create a network to pass a relay over a given spot in leo every hour/day/minute etc. This is basic orbital dynamics, something KSP teaches very well. So yes, if a CEO is ignoring the basic realities of motion, then I would cite to a video game (aka a physics simulator).