[sfifs]

> no VC will fund their rapid growth (small offerings will still find a niche, assuming they don't get gobbled up

And yet Grab and Didi drove Uber out of South East Asia and China, Ola is giving Uber a run for its money in India and now GoJek in turn is challenging Grab. In my recent trip to Tokyo we were mostly advised to take regular cabs Vs Uber in contrast to a year ago. That's literally half the world where they're getting out competed.

When reasoning doesn't line up with facts, there are usually flaws in the logic. One possible flaw it turns out is that well off globe trotters or even people who frequently travel across cities in a country and would love to use the same app everywhere likely form a small % of total cab trips. Majority of trips are just local trips by an area's residents. So locally, majority just goes with whoever offers better service and relevance. Cutting Price can trump over these but by going public, bottom line became a lot more important to Uber and Lyft - so this isn't likely a viable strategy. Another possible flaw is that the compute required to support this is likely commoditized and there's not likely as much competitive advantage in data.

So it's going to be interesting...

[ManishR]

>>When reasoning doesn't line up with facts, there are usually flaws in the logic.

I don't think there's an opposition of facts and logic here. Grab was founded in 2012 (https://www.grab.com/sg/about/), Ola in 2011 (https://www.olacabs.com/about.html), and GoJek in 2010 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Go-Jek). All of these were entrenched players in their respective markets when Uber decided to put up a fight. Uber gave the Grab and Ola's VCs no option but to double down, if they were to save their existing investments. In this race to bottom, it was Uber who blinked first. Losing SE Asia was not an existential threat to Uber, but definitely for Grab. Media likes to talk winners and losers, but Uber did end up taking 27.5% stake in Grab just to leave the market (https://techcrunch.com/2018/04/24/grab-uber-deal-southeast-a...). However, their fight in India with Ola continues. But to my initial argument - back in 2010-2012, we thought that the network effect of social networks (like Facebook) extended to ride-sharing services too creating high barriers to entry. We know now that isn't the case. Imagine how a VC would react today to a startup founder pitching a ride-sharing idea in a market where Uber/Lyft are already entrenched, given what we have learned from Lyft IPO and Uber's SEC filing. My argument may seem counterintuitive here, but I believe that the Uber/Lyft's revealed financials is what may ultimately save them. They have successfully managed to make the ride-sharing market unattractive (at least for 10x return seeking VCs).

[ignoramous]

Apart from SDCs, there might be a market for an enterant that focuses on drivers as much as the rider experience: That could really steal drivers from Uber/Ola/Grab 'cause I hear nothing but endless list of gripes from drivers about how they are treated and how helpless they are.

I'd go back to late 2000s when Nokia's and Blackberry's stranglehold on high end phone market seemed unassailable but how it was blown away in the preceding years by a more expensive product (better app store for developers, better device for the end user).

[himank]

You underestimate how much VC money is out there right now and Uber's competitive position in international markets is far from stable.

[cavisne]

They did not get "out competed" in china, a country where competition has nothing to do with success. Likewise in Russia. Grab is the only company to out compete Uber so far.

[spaceman_2020]

Ola vs Uber in India is so similar in terms of experience that I literally open the first app that's on my screen.

There is no way to differentiate in this market. The only thing that would make me switch is a guarantee of a good driver, but that would just raise the costs absurdly.

[aviraldg]

There is actually -- both the companies have certain cities where they seem to have many more drivers than the other. Due to this, when I'm in Bangalore, I prefer Uber, but when in Calcutta, I prefer Ola.

[forkLding]

Thats bs, you only need to google "china bikesharing competition" to know what it means to compete in China. Startups in China will resort to any means, legal and illegal to bring each other down. A lot of bikesharing companies went bust because people essentially competed to the point of reducing price to wipe out the other competitor.

Even if you succeed temporarily, your competitor will clone you and your technology. Its similar in USA but in China its multiplied by the population factor in a region the same area so its more intense.

The competition also permeates downwards and creates beasts like the 996.

[turingbook]

On the contrary, China is the most competitive country in Internet industry and Uber was beaten badly by Didi.

Actually, the success of Didi,Grab,Ola etc. vs. Uber proves that in the complex e-business, as long as there is enough market space in the local area, and you can organize a good team, you can win in the competition with foreign companies. Just like Alibaba and JD beat Amazon, Meituan beat Goupon in China.

[heavenlyblue]

>> Likewise in Russia.

That's BS. Yandex is an incredibly strong player in Russia in the search space and Google is not outcompeting them either. It was the case way before Putin's political ambitions became relevant.

All in all, there are many reasons to blame Russia for it's government, but that's blatantly not one of them.

[ex3ndr]

Not much, it is like saying that Google outcompeted Apple in mobile world.

[heavenlyblue]

It’s more like saying Google outcompeted Apple in creating a better clone of Excel via Google Sheets vs Numbers.

[jrmcauliffe]

Sure, if you want to define competition as the market you come from, rather than the market you're in.

[verma7]

What about Ola in India?

[koolba]

Also nothing stops a “low tech” competitor from skimming local price information from a larger rival and automating their matching. The pricing has to be publicized or else how else would the drivers know?

[hhs]

Useful points with Grab and Go-Jek. There's a neat backstory to the founders. They used to be classmates and good friends. Last month's Fortune article offered some context - if interested, it's here: http://fortune.com/longform/grab-gojek-super-apps/.

[SRTP]

Go-Jek is not challenging Grab.

They have a deeply inferior product, fail to catch up to Grab's breakneck innovation pace.

Also, being an Indonesian company, Go-Jek has a disorganized company culture that is not conducive to competing with a lean, well-oiled machine run by Singaporeans like Grab.

[Ayesh]

I have traveled extensively in Indonesia, and have always preferred Go-Jek over Grab, and I have a feeling I share the same with the number of drivers and riders, at least in Medan, Jakarta, Bandung, Yogyakarta, and most of Java.

I also don't think being an Indonesian company has challenged Go-Jek in any way. Traveloka, Tiket.com, and Go-Jek are one of the most prominent businesses in Indonesia, and they all look like well-oiled machines.

[ian0]

Besides being racist this is factually incorrect.

Grabs two co-founders were born in Malaysia and the execs are from all over the world.

Both are very successful companies but from the innovation perspective Gojek is most definitely the leader. You need only look at their offering (dozens of products built in house) in comparison to everyone else outside of china. Their food business is now bigger than the ride sharing for example, and their rollout of this was exceptional. Light-years ahead strategy wise of the rest at the time (grab/uber).

The only thing I can think of that Grab has executed on better is international expansion and the initial grab-car service was at one stage far more popular than go-car.

[kristianov]

This is so racist...