[rmrm]

having worked at a lot of startups with various outcomes, I've come to firmaly believe the net preset value of your options is actually correct. If you take all the shares I've ever had options given on, and multiplied them by the strike price, it isn't far off from the ultimate amount of money they've been worth. The variance is high between each one, but taken together..

If you get a 100,000 shares at 0.10 each...they are likely over multiple trials going to be worth around 10K. Act accordingly.