[perl4ever]

As was mentioned elsewhere in this thread (and I am aware of from reading 538) during the campaign, Silver updates separately both a probability based on the scenario of "if the election were held tomorrow" and the best prediction of the election on its actual date.

[dragonwriter]

In the 2016 election season, Silver used three models, two forecast models predicting what the election would do (a “polls-only” and a “polls-plus” model incorporating non-poll data), and the “nowcast” of what would happen if the election were held at the moment of the analysis. The polls-only forecast was (at least at the end of the cycle) the headline result.