[throwawaymath]

> If Silver really believed these probabilities were correct, he should be willing make bets with these odds, otherwise his incentives are distorted.

Yes, the "skin in the game" argument. That is Nassim Taleb's calling card. Personally, I consider it a little unreasonable to expect people to literally put their money where their mouth is every time they make a forecast.

[dictum]

It's a kind of ad hoc censitary suffrage. One can only put possessions on the line if they have them, and the greater one's possessions, the greater their perceived "skin".

[throwawaymath]

Yeah I get the idea, I just don't like that it encourages dismissal of opinions which aren't backed by some form of collateral.