[acdha]

The distinction is that this is widespread new risk without accurate actuarial data. Someone looking at buying a house today doesn’t just have to wonder whether the value will be zero in 50 years but whether it might be 30% the next time a big storm causes enough damage that people don’t just rebuild, which could happen much sooner than that. Once there’s an event which makes it hard to get insurance, mortgages, or utilities the values can drop very quickly and you won’t have much advanced notice.

[nabla9]

That's probably how the end comes. So much damage that it's not worth rebuilding even cheaper and temporary.

But as I said, until that happens people will live, property values will decrease and stuff that is rebuild will be build cheaper.

What will most likely happen first is "climate centrification" within Miami. Poor people in high elevations will be move out when land value increases. Low elevation areas become new low income neighborhoods.

[acdha]

That’s a big change from your earlier “What happens 50 years from now should matter relatively little for people living there now”. People need to plan now for those big disruptions because they’re either going to live long enough to be directly affected, because any buyer will be taking that into account, or both. Miami won’t go to zero overnight but everyone should assume that the next 50 years will be quite different from the past 50.

[nabla9]

That's not a change from my earlier.

People who rent or live in cheap property just move and other people come in. Property values change gentrification happens but that's usual for a big city.

If you move to Miami now and have children, you can raise them in next 20 years and move elsewhere in next 30 years.

[acdha]

… as long as you don’t mind losing money on a house, living somewhere the landlord invests nothing in, dealing with accelerated infrastructure collapse and paying higher taxes for reduced public services as all of the mitigation costs tank budgets everywhere. A city with a declining tax base is not business as usual.