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by monitorman 2639 days ago
If things were as simple as this, you could then always short IPOs for a while, and the expected value would be positive.
4 comments

You can short sell but unfortunately (at least for retail, and to the extent of my knowledge) not trade options in the first week of trading for a newly listed stock. Which is a shame because I 100% would have bought puts in the first hours of trading when I saw the market price surge into the 80s. Lyft's float is pretty low volume so the surge of retail investors trying to add Lyft to their portfolios caused a mini bubble.
I'm sure you haven't looked over historical data, but if you did you'd find this to be a profitable strategy were it not for two problems: finding shares to borrow (a requirement to "short" a stock, because you borrow them and immediately sell), and if you try and fix that problem with buying put options, those won't be available for a week.
Actually so far for the last few years at least this strategy was quite profitable. New IPOs significantly underperformed S&P500
Yes, and the expected value is positive. Unfortunately for us, the banks that underwrite the IPO choose who to allocate the shares to, and they would prefer to allocate them to clients that have a history of not dumping the stock and/or lending shares out for shorts.
You'd think that if the EV was positive, that no one would buy the IPO, and would instead but a few days/weeks later. Why buy before the dip?
The entire value of the offering was traded in the first 30 mins which goes against that narrative a bit..