[nine_k]

I think it's like a lottery. The rational move is not to play: it prevents you from nearly guaranteed losses. It also prevents you from hitting the jackpot.

Obviously, when you interview those who hit a jackpot, they will tell: buy more tickets! Believe blindly in your luck! This is what worked for them.

The trick is that you don't interview much those who kept failing, either by following the scenario, or by deviating from it. They are more numerous but less interesting.

Definitely, running a startup is not pure lottery, execution matters a lot. It's more like poker: a good player will win more often, but you always can do everything right and still lose.