[smallgovt]

It's even worse than a straw poll. PredictIt's 5% withdrawal fee destroys any potential profit opportunity for new users betting against a candidate with low winning chances.

For example, if I were to sign up and bet against Yang at 5% odds, even if I won my bet, I'd make $0 profit because my entire withdrawal amount is taxed at 5%. If Yang's odds were set at less than 5%, I'd actually lose money even though I won my bet!

Given this, the market for low likelihood outcomes is extremely inefficient and it's very plausible that these odds are being gamed by candidates vying for attention.