[j_baker]

"We all know how this song ends. At some point the house of cards will fall."

You know, both vigilance and long-term thinking are admirable traits. But don't you think it's a bit premature to become gloomy about the next recession? I mean, our economy hasn't really started to recover from the last one.

Besides this, I doubt the financial markets had this level of introspection before the housing collapse. Most banks regarded subprime mortgages as a sure thing and were largely caught unaware (even if they were unaware because they ignored the facts). Don't assume that a collapse is inevitable. A bubble doesn't grow if investors don't let it. So there's a good chance that a collapse will either be averted or won't be that bad.

[cletus]

If history has taught us anything it's that cycles ofboom and bust are inevitable. The lengths of e cycles varies. The degree of the booms and busts varies. Bu the cycle is constant.

It's a fundamental part of human psychology: markets are riven by fear and greed. They overbuy on greed and oversell on fear. There's your cycle.

I'm not predicting the next recession other tbqnthere will be one but guarani more prophetic than saying "it will rain eventually".

The problem is that governments tend to make these things worse and more frequent. Letting banks fail would be q good first step to weeding out the bad participants.

We may not be put of recession but the Internet/VC cycle is closer to the peak (IMHO) than you might otherwise think.