[athrowaway3z]

Couple of perspectives you could take. Here are two:

1: Would you be willing to invest $13K into the company right now with your own money in exchange for 2.3%?

2: What are the most extreme odds you are willing to take for

[ X % -> $50K+ , Y % -> $13K , Z % -> $0 | X+Y+Z = 100%]

Then figure out what others are saying the chances of X and Y are.

P.S. My (generous) uninformed bet would be X=1-5% and Y=30%