[ham_sandwich]

You’re right. Like a lot of other engineers, I once thought “ML+High level team info=$$$$” but quickly learned that you really can’t get an edge unless you’re digging into that more granular data and even then it’s really tough. It can be very hard to improve on simple linear models.

The odds coming out of Vegas are usually priced correctly. Sports markets are very efficient—although perhaps not as ruthlessy efficient as public equity markets. I would imagine there are still syndicates out there that are the “RenTec of sports betting” and just printing alpha.

[nrjames]

This is a great article about how the actions of some players are very predictive of the outcome of the game even if their stats don't reflect that: https://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/15/magazine/15Battier-t.html