Okay but how about this: Say you actually dropped out of your degree one day before completing it. Skillwise you are almost the same but your compensation will take a drastic hit on average.
It's not a good inference from the employer's perspective that he is skillwise almost the same. The dropout happened for a reason, i.e. he was not on track to meet the degree requirements, which at least creates doubt about the underlying skill.
As someone who completed four years of college but did not receive my degree because of one unfulfilled requirement, this is true.
However, it is a temporary phenomenon. Within 5 years I was earning on par with my colleagues who had their diplomas, and today I manage and out-earn people with degrees.
I am absolutely certain that the skills and knowledge I gained in college were essential to my career. So if the question is whether college is useful minus the credential, count me as an enthusiastic yes.
The first job after college seems huge to young folks but it really does not matter in the long run. I can't think of a single person I know over 40 who is doing the same thing today that they did out of college. In some cases the job or industry did not even exist when they graduated.
College education gives you the opportunity to built a base foundation that will serve your whole life, which is (hopefully) long. Who knows what the world and jobs will look like 30 years from now.
What does it say about a person who makes such a catastrophically stupid and easily avoidable decision? Will they decide to treat your big launch day like their degree, and bug out the day before never to be seen again?
Yes, this is signaling, but really useful signaling. School can provide both signaling and skills.
Not if the employer is rational, and instead simply asks to see your transcripts. A list of courses completed (with grades) from a respected school is much more informative about someone's skills than a degree.
Credentialism is a poor surrogate for showing your work.