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by mLuby 2655 days ago
Which would be fine IF the SAT were a useful predictor of future academic or life success.

Since it's not, we could either 1) pick something that is a better predictor, or 2) give up and use a lottery.

2 comments

> Predicting Success in College: SAT® Studies of Classes Graduating Since 1980

> Studies predicting success in college for students graduating since 1980 are reviewed. SAT® scores and high school records were the most common predictors, but a few studies of other predictors are included. The review establishes that SAT scores and high school records predict academic performance, nonacademic accomplishments, leadership in college, and postcollege income. The combination of high school records and SAT scores is consistently the best predictor. Academic preadmission measures contribute substantially to predicting academic success (grades, honors, acceptance and graduation from graduate or professional school); contribute moderately to predicting outcomes with both academic and nonacademic components (persistence and graduation); and make a small but significant contribution to predicting college leadership, college accomplishments (artistic, athletic, business), and post-college income. A small number of studies of nonacademic predictors (high school accomplishments, attitudes, interests) establish their importance, particularly for predicting nonacademic success.

https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED562836.pdf

> SAT and ACT scores as predictors of undergraduate GPA scores of construction science and management students

> The result showed relatively strong positive correlation and predictive indices for both ACT and SAT. Thus, the hypothesis of higher UGPAs being related to higher ACT or SAT scores was supported. It was concluded that the admission committees might need to reexamine their admission requirements and/or look at ACT score more than SAT during admission.

https://scholar.google.de/scholar?as_ylo=2015&q=sat+predicts...

There is no better predictor for future academic success than the SAT (or an equivalent IQ test - ACT/LSAT/GRE/GMAT).

The only other predictors that are good at predicting success are either undesirable (socioeconomic status of parents, for instance), or hard to standardize between applicants (school GPA).