| There have been a total of 5 commercial air disasters in 2018 and 2019 with fatalities that didn't involve hijacking, landing short of the runway or overshooting the runway [0]. And that includes the crash of a cargo flight with no passengers where the crew was killed. The 737 Max 8 was involved in 2 of those 5 disasters. There are between 25,000 and 39,000 commercial aircraft in service depending on who you ask [1]. With 350 737 Maxes delivered so far, that's at most 1.4% of the total today, probably less than half that this time last year. Let's call it 1% on average for 2018 and 2019 combined. There are 10 ways you can have 2 Max crashes out of 5 total crashes. So the probability is 10 * 0.01^2 * 0.99^2 = 0.00098 Even accounting for n choose k and longer endpoints, it's still an infinitesimal probability that we'd see two catastrophes with the same rare aircraft -- unless that aircraft contributed to the catastrophe. It should be grounded. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_accidents_and_incident... [1] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/travel-truths/how-many-pl... |