[whynotminot]

More often than not you should have a general feel for how complex your app will grow in the medium / near term. If it's going to get beyond "toy" you might as well take the plunge with Redux up front. Starting your design with it is much easier than trying to shoe-horn it in later, even if the cost at the outset feels heavy.

If you're fairly confident your app won't get too over the top, then by all means go the easy route!