[throwaway-1283]

I'm honestly really skeptical that much will change. You would think prices would be edging up in anticipation of a bidding war for housing but nothing indicates that has been the case.

Plus, with the limit on SALT deductions, liquidating shares as a CA resident will be especially painful. As a former employee of one of these companies about to IPO, anecdotally I have seen many of the earlier employees already move out of state. That, plus the lower mortgage interest rate deduction cap of $750k (studio status in SF!) and highish property taxes basically can't be deducted anymore (due to SALT cap you'll hit with an average base salary alone) makes it really unattractive to stay here.

Most rank-and-file joining one of these cos in the last 4 years or so will be lucky to net $1-2m pre-tax (and below $1m post), which is a good amount of money but not exactly Wolf of Wall Street status. After taxes, you'll be competing for a run-down 1-2 bedroom in a bad location, if you choose to put a good chunk of that into a down payment.

Honestly I think for most people the game in SF these days is to play the startup lottery for a few years, and then take your winning elsewhere, especially if you are at the age where you plan to or already have started a family.

[goseeastarwar]

Makes perfect sense.

Option 1: buy $1.5M SF condo, continue with the startup rat race even though you effectively won the stock option lottery.

Option 2: move back to the Midwest where many grew up, buy $350k 4bd/4bth home, retire before you hit 40, and raise your kids near family.

[nwhatt]

Option 2 can involve working remotely, working for a Midwest startup, etc. if kids or retirement aren't appealing.

[hellisothers]

This. When people talk about leaving the area there is an assumption that not only will you be able to work for your current company remotely but you’ll also keobsbly keep your salary. Neither of these are necessarily true, especially for your _next_ job.

[rayvy]

> Most rank-and-file joining one of these cos in the last 4 years or so will be lucky to net $1-2m pre-tax

Yea I'm confused as to where all these splurge-happy millionaires the article mentions will come from. There will definitely be people well off (as you mentioned), but I'm not sure if these folks will have the money (that they want to spend) on boats, and lavish parties. It seems like a good deal of these employees will get early retirement/nest egg money, and a few execs will get a few million, while founders obviously make out the best. Not sure why that would "eat San Francisco alive".

A sensationalist headline if ever there was one {facepalm}

[sjburt]

The SF housing inventory is not large, only a few hundred homes on the market, and few thousand sales per year total. A couple hundred people that can buy at any cost, and a thousand more that are willing to push their finances to the limit and you could see a pretty significant change.

There's also a multiplier as price jumps let people cash out of their current homes with lots of spare equity.

[throwaway-1283]

My point is that most of the rank-and-file at these companies will make, on an annualized basis, about as much as a typical FB or Google or Netflix employee makes in liquid comp today (of which there are many thousands). I'm just not sure if the marginal increase in "people who are now liquid" will do anything to the market and from what I've seen prices are not trending sharply up in anticipation of some sort of bidding war. I could be wrong. It's just an observation.

[throwaway-1283]

Yes, and the people who have really made a lot of money (the founders, execs, earliest employees) have likely already had several opportunities to cash out over the years, so the market is already priced accordingly.