He recently publicly announced that Tesla drivers will be able to fall asleep at the wheel and wake up at the destination by the end of next year. Doesn't sound like a lot changed in his mindset.
Yes, i don't give a rating to this statement, i just say that Musk is not conservative about this topic as op suggested. If you ask me, I don't think that they will be anything close to that by the end of 2020
Given that Tesla is considered one of the poorer self driving options out there, and the other players in the game say 5-10 years, maybe I need to hit up a bookie in Vegas...