[barry-cotter]

> It isn't particularly helpful that economics as a discipline seems to have the same predictive value as soothsayers and court jesters().

Much as I like to point out that microeconomics has a way better record than macroeconomics, it’s akso easier because we have much, much more data.

You’re still wrong about macroeconomics though.

If you increase the money supply you’ll get inflation. If you increase it a lot you’ll get hyperinflation. If you surprise people with unexpectedly higher inflation you’ll get a boom. As people realise inflation is higher than expected you’ll get a recession.

If you raise taxes unexpectedly people will spend less, not just because they have less money, but because they realise they’ll have less money than they expected over the course of their whole lives, they’re poorer.

Saying macroeconomists don’t know anything because politicians do what they want and find a convenient economist to justify it later is like saying no one knows anything in computer science because JavaScript frameworks change every two years.

[edmundsauto]

The trick is in predicting the timing of these events after the exposure with some accuracy.