[asatterfield54]

New year + tax return tends to lead people to spend a bit more. Anecdotally I'd expect the downward spending trend to continue. Majority of the customers I interact with (barista programmer checking in) I know are asking themselves "do I need this?" before they buy. Most have cancelled their Amazon Prime subscription and stopped buying there altogether, which for many was the equivalent of an online shopping spree.

[empath75]

Just personally, I'm piling money into savings because I'm concerned about layoffs, etc, once the economy slows down.

For people who have only known 200k kubernetes remote jobs, you should be prepared for everything to turn on a dime..

[komali2]

Saw this happen in Houston in 2014. Engineers that had started their careers just after the housing crisis bounced back were sitting cozy on their 150k/year (in Houston that's gobs) roles, not really putting much into savings because "there's always Wells to drill."

When prices dropped from 90$ to 44$ a barrel, I saw candidates do some pretty stupid shit. Nuked the reminder of their savings on a new f150 was a classic drama played out over 2 weeks that my whole team was involved trying to talk him down in. Others had to move in with their parents, take roles in deer Park that were something like 2.5hr commutes one way, drop everything for a Saudi role and move out there... Their freedom of choice was essentially yanked away.

The only one that seemed to be handling it well was a fresh 3 years in engineer. No girlfriend, kids, house, and buckets of savings. He moved to Vietnam and weathered the storm on a beach, taking tiny sips of his savings.

This was a time when rates dropped from 160, 150/hr to 60, sometimes lower. Some people had to take rate cuts to keep their roll (I didn't even know that was a thing. I assumed layoffs was the only tool in the belt-tightening toolkit).

Somehow a big Operator (think shell, Exxon) got a new project out for a refinery once, which resulted in something like 50 different engineering and design rolls, of which my agency locked down iirc 10? We had, in the city alone, 600 applicants, about half a good fit for the job (and the other half decent just not the exact fit).

I don't know if the same thing could happen in my new life as a web dev, but the lesson stuck with me. When I hop on LinkedIn and see 1000 new frontend roles, it seems hopping out here in the bay area. But I also watched hack reactor crank out 60 more kids 6 weeks after my batch, and 60 more 6 weeks after that... So maybe I got lucky, got in while the getting is still hot.

Anyway, save your money.

[vitaflo]

>I don't know if the same thing could happen in my new life as a web dev

Anyone who lived through the dot-com bust in 2000 knows very well that it can happen. Many tech companies went under and almost all had massive layoffs. If you were one of the unfortunate, there were no jobs to be had. Most people I worked with during that time went into a completely different career field because they simply couldn't find work. It was all rainbows and roses until it wasn't.

[bdcravens]

My experience in the 2000 bust was that there were too many programmers. The market was flooded with dead weight who should have been in sales or management or baristas, but there just happened to be roles to fill.

[foobiekr]

My experience in 2000 was that experienced, hard-core coders and systems guys ended up dumped on the market with a ton of HTMLgrammer chum and simultaneously all of the big employers had instituted hiring freezes. Good people on the street for 6+ months, not just the pretenders.

[at-fates-hands]

>> I don't know if the same thing could happen in my new life as a web dev,

Doubtful TBH

"Front-end dev" here in the Midwest. Even when the economy tanked in 2008, I barely noticed and I was working as a contractor. I still had recruiters calling for contract work. We had a lot more people come into the industry via the banks and small businesses who went under in the crash, but even then, it wasn't a huge deal.

I'm always hedging my bets the bottom will fall out eventually. Even when people thought our roles would drop off, whoosh suddenly everybody wanted to convert all their stuff to Javascript apps and everything took off again.

Right now, more back-en devs are getting into the JS scene and "full stack" development is back in vogue. I still concentrate heavily on the UI/UX side and have been picking up JS work more and more. There's such a shortage of good JS developers that if you're a mid to senior level JS developer, you're going to have tons of options and a solid future.

If you don't want to do contract work, land a stable role at a large corporation and hunker down for a few years and see which way the wind blows then.

[CondensedBrain]

>> "Even when people thought our roles would drop off, whoosh suddenly everybody wanted to convert all their stuff to Javascript apps and everything took off again."

Prediction: the next one will snap back on people looking to turn everything into WASM apps.

[foobiekr]

2008 was not a tech crash.

[bdcravens]

(I'm in Spring, north of Houston)

I didn't really see that, but I wasn't as involved in the community at that time. Of course, the company I work for is in no way tied to the economy of Houston (and outside of that, I've done a lot of remote in my career)

[foobiekr]

Two nights ago at work a co-worker was asking me why I seem unafraid to take risks; after all I am the sole income earner for my household.

I explained that I’ve mostly lived my life with the theory that “they fire everyone eventually” and so when, not long after graduation in mid-1999, I experienced the dotcom implosion, 9/11, the extreme rise of offshoring (and the endless lies from management that their goals were not, at the time, to offshore all engineering for cost), and so on, the world was living up to my expectations. While I’ve never been fired or laid off, I knew people - very good people - who did and went 6 to 18 months unable to find a new job in a different Silicon Valley - one of layoffs and hiring freezes that didn’t thaw for years, one where startup investment plummeted and the stock gains evaporated. I spent a great deal of time in my pre-CS degree days involved in the rise and crash of Japan in the nineties and the US recession around that time; I’d seen it before and so I lived my life assuming I’d need to weather it.

Wealth, security and opportunity evaporated at once. They are not unrelated.

Co-worker is young. He noted that when he went to a startup some years ago, and people asked him why he would risk it, his answer was he’d just find another job or come back.

I am unafraid because I know in my bones that the world can change on a dime so I’ve always been conservative and prepared; practices (professional and financial), frugality and savings.

He is unafraid because he’s never known the job market that wasn’t hot in the Bay Area. He graduated in 2009.

At least I resolved a mystery for him. In the 2000s when he was in high school, he told his counselor that he wanted to do computers. The counselor said, “Are you crazy? All of that’s going to be done in India.” Until our conversation he didn’t understand that exchange.

All of this is a very long way of saying that yes, the world you know can turn on a dime and the invariants aren’t.

[random_kris]

sorry for a weird question but how does one decide to be a barista programmer? is it because you like being barista or is it because programming doesn't pay enough?

[cevn]

Maybe he is programming baristas. Like Westworld style.

[SketchySeaBeast]

That explains the name recognition.

"Could I get your name?" "Bob." "Sorry, I can't help with that!"

[asatterfield54]

Burn out and tired of writing CRUD all day in an office.

[AnimalMuppet]

Honest question. Is being a barrista better, or just different?

[random_kris]

oh I get you... I've been writting CRUD applications for past 2 years. It gets boring some times, but also quite challenging quite sometimes... Been wondering how would it be to work another proffesion. Like now I work as a programmer and don't have any hobies outside of computers but I could be working something else and do programming as a hobby... definitely worse for future money wise...

[cobookman]

+1. Noticed this trend as well

[davio]

This coincides with Marie Kondo's arrival

[amphibian87]

Her book has been out since 2014, I couldn't stomach the show it was too "cute" and slow paced. Book is excellent though.

[davio]

I think her show is the most viral thing I've heard people talking about at work (and my wife's work) since GOT

[dymk]

But the meme lasted for a few weeks tops. I never hear people reference the “does it bring you joy” thing anymore.

[bilkoo]

Would make a good South Park episode

[eli_gottlieb]

Wasn't that basically the episode about the 2008 economic crash, where Randy leads the town in a drive towards simplicity by wearing sheets and such?

[moosey]

She applied a basic rule for which I buy anything that isn't essential. It might seem like a dumb rule, but discovering that buying stuff doesn't make you happy, and finding a way to break the buying stuff addiction, is really fantastic to me, especially because I believe that contentment and happiness are essential measures of economic success.

I hope it spreads quickly. I think it will help a lot of people who own too much stuff, and find themselves exhausted due to it.

[pas]

Could you provide some context? Why is she important for US incomes? Arrival of what kind? Where from / to?

[dgacmu]

It was humor. She advocates asking whether or not an object "brings you joy" before deciding whether or not to buy or keep it. A very popular person on the topic of keeping your home organized.

[Swizec]

Millenials generally speaking are broke, inundated with loans, and the resulting zeitgeist is antimaterialism. Marie Kondo’s popularity is a symptom of this trend. People don’t want to buy crap anymore.

That’s why instagram is full of travel pictures not of “I bought a house/car/etc” pictures. Us millenials don’t see possessions as a status symbol anymore but almost as a liability.

[komali2]

The classic embodiment of this was A Twitter trend months ago of people posting pics of the "room of couches you aren't allowed to sit on" in their parents houses, or "cupboard full of dishes we never used."

[abrugsch]

was the "room of couches..." trend immediately after an episode of The Goldebergs aired with exactly that scenario? (except the 80's version)

also the "stuff we never use" is probably mostly just parents fed up with their kids breaking stuff just by looking at it and they'd like to emerge from parenthood with at least some sentimental items still intact. (source: a parent with 7 and 2 y/o energetic, clumsy boys who I'd very much love to share my own personal memories with lest they be destroyed on contact with one of the whirlwinds of destruction...)

[smacktoward]

When the student is ready, the teacher appears :-D