[whitepoplar]

Given all your preparation and work, do you think you're able to beat the market on a risk-adjusted basis? What marginal edge do you have over professional institutions + quant funds, who are also reading reports and paying attention to the news? (to say the least)

[dsmithatx]

I average 12%-20+% yearly. I like to look at companies with a good PEG (price to earnings over growth) on a PEG of 1.00 or less unless their are good fundamentals. I like companies with a low P/E. I like dividends as I can reinvest cash.

My grandfather taught me about how industrials are cyclical and easy to make money on. Gas prices go up in the summer etc. etc.

Reading news means nothing. Understanding the overall picture of the economy, jobs, housing, commodities, macroeconomics (a fundamental understanding which few take time to learn) are key. Interpreting the "news" is important and learning to filter. Most news is (as the article kind of says) telling you what trends are happening. Never buy a trend. The news mostly tells the past. You have to focus on the present and future.

The news is actually talking about recession. The economy is strong at the moment. The news told us oil would never go below $150 a barrel. If you take time to learn the larger picture you would know these things are fear and not true. See the forest for the trees.

[orojackson]

Totally agree. As this commenter [1] said it succinctly (although in a different context): "Such a family office also has to contend with other giants trying to claim the G.O.A.T. title for asset management companies with incredible scale efficiencies. The stakes are 'for all the marbles of the game' high, and they're using all the benefits of capital scale they can scrounge."

I find it extremely hard to believe that one dude can consistently beat Vanguard and Fidelity in the midst of their fee war when it comes to public equity (private equity, however, is a whole different ball game, but that's beyond the scope of this discussion).

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18701283

[fucking_tragedy]

> do you think you're able to beat the market on a risk-adjusted basis?

I don't think anyone is going to beat the market doing their due diligence. It's more about making sound investments instead of treating investing like gambling at a casino or rooting for a particular sports team.

[orojackson]

If that is the case, why not just buy the entire US stock market through something like FZROX, SWTSX, or VTSAX? That feels like a sound investment to me.

[dsmithatx]

that's a fucking_tragedy indeed lol

Good fortune to you!