[bmiranda]

Even in Japan it's cheaper to fly between Osaka and Tokyo than take the train. The train is a lot more convenient, though.

There are only a few corridors where high speed rail makes sense. Northeast US. Texas Central Railway is even trying to build a line between Houston and Dallas.

Building out everywhere though is a surefire way to rack up debt. Look at Japan, which is touted as a high-speed rail success story. Although the Osaka-Tokyo route is profitable (and very beneficial to their economy), the rest of their high-speed rail network essentially bankrupted JR Rail. JR Rail ended up being privatized, with most of the debt being funneled into a holding company owned by the government. JR East/Central are operating off of a high-speed network they essentially got for free.

[zhte415]

Sitting on a train from Jilin to Beijing, I noted the below from Wikipedia:

> In another study conducted about Japan's High-speed rail service, they found a "4-hour wall" in high-speed rail's market share, which if the high speed rail journey time exceeded 4 hours, then people would likely choose planes over high-speed rail. For instance, from Tokyo to Osaka, a 2h22m-journey by Shinkansen, high-speed rail has an 85% market share whereas planes have 15%. From Tokyo to Hiroshima, a 3h44m-journey by Shinkansen, high-speed rail has a 67% market share whereas planes have 33%. The situation is the reverse on the Tokyo to Fukuoka route where high-speed rail takes 4h47m and rail only has 10% market share and planes 90%. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-speed_rail

The journey is a bit more than 4 hours. The above "4-hour wall" seemed to make a lot of sense. Passenger ridership end-to-end was not very high, but intermediate station pickup and putdown, consisting of quite large cities by European or North American standards, was high. Taking a plane would be slightly faster and sometimes a little cheaper, I prefer the train because of time in laptop/connectivity, good seat size/leg room/decline, ability to have a snooze.

Without the intermediate cities, the train would have be mainly empty. What the train brought/brings was a relief of bus/coach traffic, and a substantial increase in facilitating movement between 'smaller' (though not small) cities that mainly don't have airports.

Does the US have this layout or need?

[Aloha]

I'd say it does - if you look at Amtraks long distance trains, the number of people traveling end to end, is usually small, its the intermediary stops that provide the bulk of the passengers.

[mikekchar]

Just to give you the price, a return fare Shinkansen ticket from Tokyo to Hakata (Fukuoka) costs almost exactly $400 (44660 JPY). I did a random search for air fares for next week and the lowest ones were $250 return (was looking at an English site, so it only gave me USD). The Shinkansen takes nearly 5 hours, while the flight takes 2. Even when you account for the crazy amount of time ahead you need to arrive for a flight, it will end up being both nearly half the price and half the amount of time. Especially for business travel, there is no way for the Shinkansen to compete. I've actually done that ride once and really enjoyed it, but you have to be a train fan :-)

[ip26]

half the amount of time

Hmm, many US airports recommend showing up a minimum of 2 hours early, and it takes me 1 hour to get to the airport...

[mikekchar]

Japanese airports are ridiculously efficient. I've gone through both Narita and Haneda a numerous times and it's never taken me more than 15 minutes to get through, even with an international flight. I can't quite remember how long they recommend for domestic flights, but I think it's 1 hour (i.e. 30 minutes before boarding).

Narita is right out for time to get there (like your scenario, it will take more than an hour to take a train there and make it to the check in desk). However, Haneda is only 19 minutes from Tokyo station by monorail. If you live in the more populated areas of Tokyo, it's probably not any more or less convenient than taking the Shinkansen.

Coincidentally, Fukuoka airport is only 3 km away from Hakata station (though you have to take a shuttle bus Edit: It's actually 2 stations away on the metro -- I didn't know this!). So in this example, it's really 6 of one half a dozen of the other. You end up in practically the same spot. I think this is one of the reasons why people fly to Fukuoka. In the other direction, I would probably fly to Sapporo if I needed to get there quickly, but would take the train if I was going anywhere in the Tohoku region (NE region of the main island). The main reason is that the Shinkansen stops at Shin-Hakodate-Hokuto and then you have to take a different train to Sapporo. When they finally have a line going all the way to Sapporo, I think it will be competitive because it takes an hour to get from Chitose airport to Sapporo station.

[sesutton]

Those recommendations are ridiculous. It depends on the airport but for my home airport I only budget 45 minutes and usually only need 15.

[imtringued]

The fundamental problem with trains vs planes is that a 2 hour flight only requires 2 hours of wages compared to 5 hours of wages for the train. Owner driven cars obviously don't suffer from this problem so it can still be cheaper to take the car.

[mistrial9]

no - you dont factor in the sheer number of people that are travelling the routes on any given day, or extranalaties of the systems.. its a one-dimensional choice, by marketshare, in your example

[kalleboo]

Japan also has a privatized and almost fully-tolled highway network. A high-speed rail ticket for me to Fukuoka costs 9,000 yen; to drive a car instead the tolls alone cost 6,200 yen, add gas to that and the longer time it takes to drive, unless you're loading your family into the car the high cost of driving makes taking the train highly attractive. The US would never tolerate highway tolls like Japan has.

[gotocake]

It’s not as expensive per mile as Japan, but US highways do often have tools, and if you’re on the East coast it can add up. Just crossing the GW bridge in New York costs about the equivalent of 1,400 yen. If you want to compare a similar distance something like the I-95 corridor from Massachusetts to North Carolina is a good choice. All told it would be in the range of about 3,500 yen in tolls depending on your route and stop-offs.

Remembering that Americans on average drive much larger cars that use more gas than Japanese people, and I’m not sure thst your point holds up.

[mikekchar]

The OP actually has to live pretty close to Fukuoka for those prices (probably you were thinking they lived in Tokyo). The distance they are talking about is less than 200 km (maybe 150 miles) -- so about 15% of the distance you are talking about. Tolls roads are very expensive in Japan. Trains are also surprisingly expensive, though very well run.

[gotocake]

Jesus. I stand corrected and a little impressed, and they’re right, Americans would literally riot over those prices.

[kalleboo]

Correct, I'm in Kagoshima, so it's 285 km / about 3 hours. I should have put that in my post. The train only takes half the time (1h30m)

[ballenarosada]

Taking on debt to finance a public good like high speed rail is perfectly reasonable. Privatization isn't a natural outcome of a public corporation running a deficit--it's the result of a political decision to disinvest in that project.

[geofft]

Agree. Government debt is a good thing - just ask fiscal conservative Ronald Reagan, who was the first president since World War II to increase the national debt relative to the GDP. Government is not a company, and judging it by the standards of a company is a mistake. (If anything, it is the dual of a company.)

[slavik81]

Ronald Reagan lowered government revenues with a round of tax cuts and sharply raised government spending. The debt was entirely from increasing the military budget without having taxes to pay for it. I would not describe his presidency as fiscally conservative.

[tdfx]

Even with parking for a couple days priced in, it's still considerably cheaper to rent a car and drive from DC to NYC than to take the train (and takes about the same amount of time). I much prefer train travel but unless it's heavily subsidized the way highway travel is, I don't think it will ever be competitive or widely popular.

[seanmcdirmid]

Or just unsubsidize highway travel. It is bound to happen eventually as public investment can’t keep up with road infrastructure needs.

[ajmurmann]

Japan also doesn't have street parking. Another way pretty much every other country is subsidizing cars.

[skookumchuck]

Flying is quick, but the time at both ends kills it for shorter trips. I'd rather take the train. I love riding the rails in Europe. It's a very pleasant way to travel.

[seanmcdirmid]

shinkansen stations are sometimes a bit put there, though not as bad as the airports. Chinese HSR stations are usually way out there, adding to lots of endpoint time, though still not as much as Chinese airports. Europe is pretty ideal, though I’ve had to transfer train stations in Paris before coming off a TGV. Not fun.

[ajmurmann]

Where are Shinkansen stations "out there"? I've only taken it for a variety of stops between Tokyo and Okayama. All those stations were very central.

[seanmcdirmid]

For many of the smaller cities along the route; eg Gifu, it doesn’t make sense to route the train into the city.

[Grue3]

Shin-Yokohama, Shin-Osaka, Shin-Hakodate are the typical examples. Going from Tokyo to Yokohama center is usually faster on a conventional train.

[jboles]

Osaka is an example, the Shinkansen does not stop in central Osaka but stops at ‘Shin Osaka’ station (literally ‘New Osaka’ station).

[seanmcdirmid]

Though to be fair, shin Osaka is pretty built up and only 4 Minutes away by subway from central Osaka station.

[innocenat]

Wow. Just wow.

JNR ("JP Rail") is in debt because underperforming local lines and inability to increase fare. During privatisation, the Shinkansen is only leased to the newly formed companies as it's making money hand over fist. JR East/Central/West have since bought the line, though.

And flying is cheaper precisely because people like Shinkansen more, though it's not always cheaper.

[thatfrenchguy]

Once you add up the externalities to air travel though pricing is going to be different...

[Pxtl]

Carbon pricing may change this cost-benefit ratio though - planes are grossly carbon-ineffecient. With a respectable carbon price, will electric HSR become economical?